After a swift rebuild, the Green Bay Packers are back on the come-up heading into 2024. They’ll return most of the young talent that helped them craft their second-half surge in 2023, which carried them to the final series of the NFC’s Divisional round.
With dead money from Aaron Rodgers and David Bakhtiari coming off the books and Jordan Love’s army of pass-catchers remaining on rookie deals, Brian Gutekunst hit the open market to refine the team’s weaknesses and compensate some of the critical pieces that have gotten them here. The Packers rewarded defensive tackle Kenny Clark and Love with massive extensions. They also added safety duo Xavier McKinney and Javon Bullard to overhaul a room marred by inconsistency and failed draft picks. The other position group that got a facelift wasn’t on many people’s to-do lists.
Running back.
Following a long and storied fan-favorite relationship, the Packers dumped Aaron Jones for a younger tailback. They gave Josh Jacobs a four-year, $40-plus-million deal with an insurance policy that essentially makes it a one-year, $12.5 million guaranteed contract with team options. Jacobs comes off a disappointing second act after he burst fully onto the scene as 2022’s leading rusher.
For age and injury purposes, Matt LaFleur was pretty restrictive with Jones’ workload, particularly down the stretch of his career in Green Bay. Fantasy owners are concerned that Jacobs will see a similar split with some combination of third-round rookie MarShawn Lloyd and veteran AJ Dillon. They almost unanimously have him behind exciting young backs like Bijan Robinson, Breece Hall, and Jahmyr Gibbs, as well as guys in similar circumstances like Isiah Pacheco, Saquon Barkley, and Travis Etienne.
There’s no question that the No. 2 role in Green Bay’s offense is valuable, particularly for Best Ball fantasy players. However, I’m not convinced Lloyd or Dillon possess the contingent upside that would arise from a Jacobs injury.
Lloyd has been injured through most of camp while previously appearing relatively unpolished in minicamp. Experts regarded him as a raw prospect. The Packers beat has suggested 2024 could be a redshirt-adjacent year for him, similar to Dillon’s after Green Bay took him in the second round in 2020.
Dillon’s return to the Packers was surprising after he was disappointed in the relief of Jones 2023, which led the team to revamp the position in the first place. Dillon’s upside has always been more theoretical than actual, even in opportunities where you would expect him to succeed, like short-yardage situations and as the primary option without Jones.
That leaves Emanuel Wilson. He went undrafted in 2023 out of Fort Valley State University, which will probably be a boss-level trivia question for the most dedicated of fans in a few years. His path began with a standout preseason performance and concluded with him getting carries in both Packers playoff games. This time, he’s the preseason bell cow again, which doesn’t bode well for immediate relevance. However, if Jacobs comes off the board or is otherwise limited, Wilson has the most complete skillset to replace him.
LaFleur has been adamant that the Packers will feed Jacobs and take advantage of his receiving ability out of the backfield, which was noticeably absent from his time in Las Vegas. This figures to be especially true in the red zone, where LaFleur can get creative with his new dual-threat weapon. His affinity for running the ball on early downs is part of why Gutekunst and his office have continued to value the running back position, even while sentiment has trended the other way around the league. Wilson has flashed his ability to work between the tackles and out of the backfield. Over the long stretch of the season, he likely has the inside track if a race breaks out with the rookie Lloyd and/or Dillon.
Last Sunday’s preseason tilt in Denver was a harrowing warning of what could befall Green Bay if too much depth comes off the field. In particular, many fans and media clamored for a signing such as Ryan Tannehill to insert some sort of stopgap between Jordan Love and Sean Clifford. However, I wouldn’t expect drama in the backfield to derail the season, as a deep array of specialists and weapons will be available in Jacobs’ absence. If you’re looking for a nice, low-owned Best Ball punt play, Wilson might just be the guy Lloyd and Dillon appear to be masquerading as on the depth chart.
