Awfully nice of the NFL to schedule back-to-back bye weeks for the Green Bay Packers. Kinda seems like an unfair advantage, but I’ll take it.
Overconfident? Maybe a little. For a guy who grew up in Milwaukee, raised to despise the Chicago Bears, the utter dominance in this series over the last few decades is sheer bliss: 10 in a row, 25-3 since 2011, 13 of the last 14 at Soldier Field. An 11th consecutive win would be an all-time record for the NFL’s oldest rivalry, with Game 209 on tap this Sunday.
Matt LaFleur has accomplished a lot in his tenure as the Pack’s head coach: resurrecting Aaron Rodgers to an MVP level, developing Jordan Love into a franchise QB, keeping the franchise in the Super Bowl hunt almost every year. But being a perfect 10-0 against the Bears doesn’t take a back seat to any of those accomplishments.
It was just a few weeks ago the Bears were one play away from being 5-2, destined to be the talk of the league with a resumé-building road win in Washington. Jayden Daniels‘ Hail Maryland pass stole the victory and seems to have snatched their souls. They haven’t won since. Heck, they haven’t scored an offensive touchdown since, and their season is circling the drain.
All the optimism we witnessed on Hard Knocks, all the excitement over the array of offensive weapons they acquired to give rookie QB phenom Caleb Williams the best chance to succeed — it’s a distant memory. Head coach Matt Eberflus has fired both offensive coordinators he brought in. Williams now has a third voice in his ear, Thomas Brown, the Carolina Panthers’ playcaller last year. Odds are that Williams and his teammates will meet their next head coach sometime in early January.
The Chicago offense may see a bounce this week. That’s natural when a team makes a change. Williams has been sacked a league-leading 38 times this season, including nine last week when both starting tackles were out (they’re both expected back this week). He’s holding on to the ball too long, afraid to take chances downfield. Expect Brown to call for a lot of quick reads and short passes, with an emphasis on running the ball with D’Andre Swift to relieve the pressure on Williams and his suspect line.
Jaire Alexander and Evan Williams‘ expected returns should fortify Green Bay’s defense. All eyes will be on the pass rush. It’s been Green Bay’s Achilles heel defensively and a unit that no longer has its veteran leader, Preston Smith. Can Lukas Van Ness step up and grab this opportunity? He’ll have plenty of family on hand as he returns to his hometown. We’ll get a chance to see whether either Arron Mosby or Brenton Cox can make their mark. Mosby’s half-sack against Penei Sewell a few weeks ago raised quite a few eyebrows.
We probably can’t rely on turnovers in this one. The Bears have only given it away eight times all season and twice since Week 4. You figure the volume of turnovers will slow down for the Pack, and they have just two in the last three games. It would be sweet to see Xavier McKinney pick one off D.J. Moore after the two have taken shots at each other in the media since training camp.
Twenty points should be enough to get the job done for a Packers offense that ranks near the top in the league, ninth in points and third in yards. Now imagine where this offense would be if it didn’t constantly slow itself down with penalties, drops, and Jordan Love making the occasional incomprehensible decision.
Speaking of whom, Love’s been a full participant in practice this week for the first time since the week leading up to the opener. We’ll see if the dawning of a second-half surge is in the cards this season. He destroyed the Bears with play-action passing the last time these teams met in Week 18, going eight for eight for 148 yards, a TD, and a perfect passer rating. A return to health means a return under center for a good chunk of the time, which makes play action a more dangerous weapon.
It starts with running the ball, where Chicago’s defense ranks 30th. Expect a heavy workload for Josh Jacobs, and perhaps rookie MarShawn Lloyd will see his first action since his injury six weeks ago. The Bears’ D is much stingier against the pass, ranking seventh in the league, and they’re the NFL’s No. 1 red-zone defense, an area where Green Bay’s offense needs to be much more efficient. Safety Jaquan Brisker was placed on IR this week, still dealing with the effects of a concussion suffered in Week 5. That’s very concerning for him and a significant loss for the defense, which is also without NT Andrew Billings, who is out for the season with a torn pec.
Expect the Bears to play a lot better than they did last week. They know they have zero margin for error with the league’s toughest remaining schedule (Green Bay, Minnesota, at Detroit, at San Francisco, Minnesota, Detroit the next six weeks). Still, they’re playing Matt LaFleur and the Packers this week. Any glimmer of hope will have to wait at least seven more days.
Packers 24
Bears 16
