Around this time last year, I was breaking down Tommy DeVito‘s stats, comparing his performance in a clean pocket versus under pressure, and how opponents had sacked him countless times. Then, when the Green Bay Packers played him on Monday night, they couldn’t even get a hand on him.
Fast forward 12 months, and the Packers are heading to Seattle for a primetime matchup with the Seahawks, and they’ll face a quarterback who hasn’t exactly been calm under pressure.
Geno Smith is the only quarterback with double-digit interceptions while facing pressure this season. He also ranks fourth in turnover-worthy plays and third in sacks under pressure. Additionally, he’s 29th in passer rating among 35 quarterbacks with at least 70 dropbacks.
Now that I’m bringing up these stats, the football gods will surely have Geno pull off a prime Peyton Manning performance. He’ll have all his “Omahas” ready, and the Packers won’t be able to lay a finger on him.
Green Bay’s four-man front has the opportunity to ensure history doesn’t repeat itself, not just for me but, more importantly, for the team.
According to Pro Football Focus, Seattle’s offensive line ranks fourth worst in pass-blocking efficiency. They’ve allowed the fourth-most pressures, the second-most hurries, and the fifth-most sacks. Charles Cross has given up the second-most pressures among qualified tackles. For comparison, the Seahawks have just one offensive lineman with a pass-blocking grade above 70 on true pass sets, while the Packers have three.
Laken Tomlinson is tied for 10th in pressures allowed among qualified guards with 27, while Anthony Bradford is right behind him with 26. Bradford is also tied for the third-most sacks allowed among qualified guards.
Green Bay’s defensive line generated 25 pressures over the last two weeks. Rashan Gary recorded six pressures, including four against the Miami Dolphins, while the Packers set their season high in pressures during that same game.
The Packers entered Week 14 ranked 27th in pass-rush win rate, per ESPN. However, the defensive line seems to be getting more comfortable with the 4-3 scheme and rushing techniques. They recorded 13 pressures against Detroit’s offensive line on Thursday night, a notable improvement from their previous meeting when Alim McNeill had more pressures than the entire Packers defense.
Jeff Hafley has done a great job with creative pressure packages. However, to slow down Seattle’s offense, his defense must generate pressure on Smith with the standard four-man rush.
The Seahawks have the 16th-best offense in EPA/pass, but their outside weapons can trouble any secondary. D.K. Metcalf, Jaxon Smith-Njigba, and Tyler Lockett all average at least 12 yards per catch. Metcalf and Smith-Njigba also have more receiving yards and higher receiving grades than any Green Bay receiver. Additionally, Metcalf leads the NFL in contested catches with 36, while no one else has more than 32.
A healthy Jaire Alexander would allow Hafley to implement a more aggressive plan on the back end. However, Alexander aggravated his PCL injury in the Windy City, and Eric Stokes and Keisean Nixon have been starting on the outside since then.
Unfortunately, neither is close to Alexander’s level, and opposing receivers have repeatedly burned both in recent weeks. To make matters worse, Javon Bullard is now considered week-to-week after leaving Ford Field on crutches, per Matt LaFleur. Evan Williams is also in concussion protocol, further complicating the state of Green Bay’s secondary.
Stokes has allowed 65.1% of his targets to be caught, including three touchdowns. He has yet to record a pass breakup in his career. Yes, you read that right: his career, not just this season. Nixon has allowed 66.7% of his targets to be caught, giving up five touchdowns and a 103.3 passer rating. Green Bay cannot afford to leave Stokes and Nixon one-on-one with Seattle’s receivers.
Metcalf and Smith-Njigba both have receiving grades of 76 or better against man coverage. Smith-Njigba ranks in the top 10 among qualified wideouts in receiving grade against man. In contrast, Stokes has the seventh-lowest coverage grade in man coverage among all cornerbacks, while Nixon ranks 98th.
Just like I have 2014 reasons to never feel confident when Green Bay plays in Seattle, the Seahawks can find 2014 ways to burn Stokes and Nixon. Green Bay’s best formula to slow down Seattle’s offense is putting pressure on Smith with their four-man front while keeping as many players as possible in coverage. If they can execute, they’ll take a significant step toward exorcising the ghosts of Seattle. The Packers haven’t won there since 2008. It’s about time that history changes.
