The Green Bay Packers shocked the world on Sunday, and it’s hard to imagine that they were shocked when they saw who they’ll be playing in this weekend’s Divisional Round. Green Bay versus the San Francisco 49ers in the playoffs feels like a tale as old as time. It was the epitome of the Aaron Rodgers era, which, outside of a miraculous Super Bowl run in 2010, was mainly characterized by high-flying regular seasons and precipitous postseason collapses. The four-time MVP was 0-4 against the Niners in January, dropping two on the road and two heartbreaking upsets at Lambeau Field.
Jordan Love hopes to exorcize the demons in Santa Clara that Rodgers could not. All season, his back-foot heaves and sidearm slings have befuddled broadcasters around the league. They can’t help but highlight his uncanny resemblance to his predecessors. It’s if Green Bay’s consecutive trio of franchise quarterbacks have a hereditary connection in addition to their shared career trajectories. Love seeks to take after Brett Favre, who dominated the Niners with an 11-1 record, including four playoff victories.
The Packers snuck into the playoffs as the lowest seed in 2010. They won three games on the road en route to a Super Bowl victory with their newly minted but far-from-rookie quarterback. When the youngest team in the league put everybody on notice in Dallas this year, the parallels became undeniable. The scriptwriters were in their bag when they sent Taylor Swift to Kansas City and Stafford to Detroit, so maybe they’ve got a bit of magic left in them. Unfortunately, they have a daunting opponent to deal with. Vegas is giving Green Bay only a 22% implied probability of continuing their Cinderella run.
The reality is that as well as Love and the offense are playing, he will need his defense to do some heavy lifting, something they haven’t done much of all year. Joe Barry’s unit has made Bryce Young look like C.J. Stroud and Tommy DeVito look like a legitimate quarterback. Barry’s matchup with Kyle Shanahan is akin to Grayson Allen taking on Shaq in the paint. We have watched in horror as Shanahan’s system paved holes you could drive a truck through, disappointing fans nationwide who hoped to see a competitive NFC Championship game. Instead, they saw a defense that was more helpless than those facing Derrick Henry in high school.
From a personnel standpoint, the Niners are a super team. Buoyed by Brock Purdy’s rookie contract, they have built a formidable offensive line led by Trent Williams and a group of skill players who cannot be arm-tackled. Barry’s soft zone scheme risks giving them the chunk plays they are looking for, which turn into long-range house calls as the game goes on. The key to winning this game is giving Love a chance to win with 20 to 30 points, which means matching San Francisco’s physicality on defense.
Quay Walker is the most physical, contact-seeking player on Green Bay’s defense. He plays downhill, takes kill shots, and refuses to get backed outside the box. It will take a group effort to limit Christian McCaffrey and Deebo Samuel, so Barry will need everyone to play like Walker. That means fellow inside linebacker De’Vondre Campbell, who has battled injuries all season, needs to play with the aggression that earned him a five-year extension in 2021.
Green Bay must also be able to trust star corner Jaire Alexander and seventh-round rookie Carrington Valentine in press man coverage. Valentine must use his size and physicality to disrupt Brandon Aiyuk’s deadly crossing routes and get off blocks to support the running game. Darnell Savage will be the center fielder. The much-maligned veteran Green Bay drafted for his explosive profile must bring everything to the table Saturday, just as he rose to the occasion in Dallas. Barry cannot let Shanahan stick to the script. He has to stack the box, get them away from what they do to teams in the trenches, trust his secondary, and make Purdy win the game with his arm.
Can Purdy win this through the air? Absolutely. He has it easier than the rest of the league’s quarterbacks because of the system he plays in. But Jimmy Garropolo was the kid in the group project who did none of the work and got an A. Conversely, Purdy elevates the whole offense by taking care of the ball and letting his skill players do their thing. Still, I doubt you’ll find a single fan, media member, or player who would rather lose because McCaffrey found nine yards in the B gap every single play.
Because the Packers are such a young team, this is the biggest game of many of their careers. Walker, Savage, and Valentine are crucial players to watch. It will take some of their best work to slow the Niners down. Ideally, they’ll get help from the pass rush, led by Rashan Gary, who dominated in these teams’ last playoff matchup. He’ll have an opportunity to create problems, particularly on the right side of Purdy’s offensive line, which grades out significantly lower than the Williams-led side. Rookie first-rounder Lukas Van Ness has also become extremely important after last week’s injury to Kingsley Enagbare.
When 49er fans saw Green Bay on the schedule, they probably thought something similar to what Packers fans thought when they saw Dallas. We’ve seen this story before, and it’ll be no different this time. But this isn’t the team that Shanahan’s been seeing. Many of the same pieces are in place. But their identity has evolved exponentially with Love under center, perhaps ever since he connected with Christian Watson on that deep ball to kick off Thanksgiving morning.
We’ve heard the narratives. The rebuild is ahead of schedule, the Packers are playing with house money, etc. And yes, the hindsight bias will hit like Deebo Samuel between the hashes if the first play of the game is indeed a 75-yard McCaffrey touchdown. But Love and his team have an opportunity to rewrite the story, exorcize the demons, and establish themselves as an NFC juggernaut for years to come. And that’s exciting. They say insanity is doing the same thing repeatedly and expecting a different result. Is this team ready and able to match or exceed the physicality of one of the most physical teams in football? We’ll get most of our answers in the trenches within 30 minutes of kickoff.
