I can’t be the only one who circled this game when the schedule came out last spring. Last year’s two young breakout star QBs meeting for the first time at Lambeau? It screams prime time, doesn’t it? Well, apparently not, because Jordan Love and C.J. Stroud will meet at high noon on Sunday.
We will get the top CBS team for this one (take that with a grain of salt) because it has all the makings of an instant classic. The 5-1 Houston Texans already have a stranglehold on their division but could use a signature road win or two to boost their resumé. They come into this one fresh off dusting the New England Patriots, but the Green Bay Packers are the far healthier team. The Texans will be missing key pieces on both sides of the ball.
While the Packers saw 52 of 53 players practice this week (only Devonte Wyatt remains out, and Dontayvion Wicks and Colby Wooden are questionable), the Texans are missing their best skill player and several key defensive pieces. WR Nico Collins was playing like a top-three receiver in the league before a hamstring injury landed him on IR. That zaps Houston’s passing game and has them leaning more on their running attack now that Joe Mixon and Dameon Pierce are back.
Green Bay’s run defense has looked better of late, but Mixon, in particular, will test them. Expect OC Bobby Slowik to feature him early and often to extend drives and keep the Pack’s explosive offense off the field. They’d like to shorten the game as much as possible, with their defense missing a number of key starters (more on them in a moment).
Stefon Diggs figures to gain a lot of the lost targets to Collins, and we’ll see how much the Packers ask Jaire Alexander to cover him – they have a long history from Diggs’ days with the Vikings. Big-play guy Tank Dell could be a problem for Eric Stokes or Keisean Nixon, so Xavier McKinney may need to pay attention and help them out. WR Robert Woods is another offensive piece who will miss this game.
The Pack’s opportunistic defense can’t count on Stroud to turn the ball over, so they’ll need to dominate the old-fashioned way: by tackling well and getting off the field on third down.
I think the Packers have a big advantage this week when their offense is on the field. Head coach DeMeco Ryans has built a very strong defense, led by the pass-rushing duo of Will Anderson Jr. and Danielle Hunter, but they won’t see many familiar faces in the huddle on Sunday.
Let’s start with DE Mario Edwards, who will begin serving a four-game suspension for violating the league’s substance abuse policy. Fellow DE Denico Autry is coming off a six-game suspension for a similar offense, but there’s no guarantee he’ll play this week, and he probably won’t be ready for a full workload.
Now let’s talk injuries. Stud rookie corner Kamari Lassiter and veteran safety Jimmie Ward will miss their second-straight game. LBs Azeez Al-Shaair and Henry To’oTo’o have also been ruled out – Al-Shaair has been their most reliable tackler this season. DT Foley Fatukasi is listed as questionable.
Add that up, and Houston’s defense will be missing at least five starters. With all those replacements on the field, expect Matt LaFleur to throw the kitchen sink at them. It should start with the run game because the middle of that defense will be there for the taking with those linebackers out.
Love was brilliant last Sunday, but this will be a far stiffer test, even with several starters missing. Ryans tried to butter him up earlier this week when he called Love the best quarterback his team has faced this year – even though they’re just a couple of weeks removed from seeing Josh Allen. Love is on a trajectory to be in that conversation, but he’s not there yet.
If the running game is working early, it will open up the play-action game, where Love is at his best, and the Texans are among the worst. There’s a chance for several explosive plays if the Pack can pass protect. It’s a monumental challenge for Rasheed Walker against Anderson. And while Ryans doesn’t love to blitz, he’s doing it a bit more than usual this year, and I don’t think he’ll be afraid to roll the dice on Sunday.
The wild card is the kicking game, where the Texans trot out one of the game’s best kickers, Ka’imi Fairbairn. The Pack, of course, moved on from rookie Brayden Narveson and brought in veteran Brandon McManus, whose legal problems appear to be behind him, even if the ick factor remains.
I’ve been clamoring for this team to settle on a proven, veteran kicker because it’s really dicey to count on a rookie when you have Super Bowl aspirations. McManus has kicked in a Super Bowl. He has also kicked in snow during his eight years in Denver and is as reliable as anyone from inside 50 yards. Beyond that, it’s a bit of an adventure, so we’ll see if MLF chooses to keep the offense on the field if they’re at the 35 or beyond.
I’m not completely comfortable with the decision to sign him, but I’ll have to assume they were satisfied with the answers they got when they talked to him about it. He’ll have a whopping two days of practice before suiting up for the first time.
The Pack will unveil their “Winter Warning” all-white uniforms and white helmets on a glorious 70-degree day in late October. I might have saved them for Thanksgiving night against the Miami Dolphins, but what do I know? Love vs. Stroud, a couple of young California studs meeting up for the first time – maybe they’ll meet in a Super Bowl one day.
On this day, the Packers are healthier and playing better on both sides of the ball than they have all season. That will be enough to get it done.
Packers 27
Texans 23