With training camp just around the corner, it seems inevitable that Green Bay Packers quarterback Jordan Love will receive a massive, market-setting extension. It may even have already happened by the time you read this article. I don’t know your life.
Sports Illustrated’s Bill Huber reported that Love will attend training camp regardless of the deal’s status. However, the deal’s status may determine what he actually does at camp. Still, based on Love’s smile when asked about a forthcoming deal, it seems like a matter of when rather than if.
Love had to fill big cleats last season, and he didn’t disappoint. He proved the lights weren’t too bright for him. The first-year starter had a rocky start but eventually led the league’s youngest offense to a playoff berth and an upset Wild Card victory.
For the glass-half-full crowd, Love’s debut season showed the Packers may have done it again. That would mean his future deal is the start of his long-term reign as Green Bay’s starting quarterback.
I’m optimistic about Love’s future. He grew week to week, minimizing his mistakes, gaining confidence as a passer and a team leader, and learning how to maximize Matt LaFleur’s offense. But let’s look at the other side of things.
Whether through regression, an inability to counter what defenses throw at him based on a full year of data, or the curse of an evil wizard or fey creature (these things tend to happen), it’s undoubtedly possible Love plays below his new contract and ends up a one-year wonder. What’s the worst-case scenario for a long-term contracted Love?
Love is in a unique position for a starting quarterback because of how rare the patience is to cultivate that type of development. Chances are, if you’re drafting a quarterback in the first round, it’s because your team is bad and needs a quarterback. Therefore, that quarterback will start sooner rather than later. By the time that rookie contract is over, you have a good amount of data on whether to offer an extension or a wave of goodbyes.
The Kansas City Chiefs and Baltimore Ravens are patient franchises that gave their rookie quarterback some time on the bench. Still, they transitioned to Patrick Mahomes and Lamar Jackson fairly early.
It’s uncommon in today’s league for a quarterback to earn a megadeal based on just one season. However, for Love, it’s more based on the final eight games of the 2023 season.
The league has its fair share of one-year wonders, like Tim Tebow, Mike Glennon, Case Keenum, and Nick Foles. While those years elevated some quarterbacks to long careers as backup options, none really compare to the timing of a Love deal.
Daniel Jones is the closest thing to a recent example. The New York Giants quarterback looked like a bust until his 2022 season when new head coach Brian Daboll unlocked some of Jones’ latent strengths and led the team to a surprising playoff berth.
Teams want to base contracts on what a player can do rather than just what they’ve done. However, Jones’s one solid season led him to a four-year, $160 million extension. However, his contract aged poorly when Jones regressed in 2023 and missed a significant portion of the season with a torn ACL.
That left the Giants struggling to build a competitive roster with an expensive quarterback who isn’t leading them to victory. As revealed on Hard Knocks, Giants general manager Joe Schoen explained how Jones’ deal led to the departure of key free agents like Saquon Barkley and Xavier McKinney (thanks for the latter, btw).
“You’re paying the guy $40 million,” Schoen said. “It’s not to hand the ball off to a $12 million back.”
The Packers backloaded Aaron Rodgers‘ final contract, creating a difficult cap situation, but it should improve from here. Still, even with a rising cap, Love’s deal will take up most of the money the league allows them to spend. It will be hard to build a competitive team if he’s mediocre. Worse, the team must spend resources to find a better option.
The Jones situation shows how difficult it is to create a viable team with a mediocre-to-below-average quarterback demanding such financial space.
While the Giants highlight poor roster building, it’s extremely difficult to see Love taking a similar path to Jones. Even in Jones’ breakout year, he only threw for 15 passing touchdowns. However, he made headlines as a runner, with seven rushing TDs.
Love has already shown more as a passer and did it with a group of unproven offensive weapons.
Still, Love regressed after his dominant 2018 college season, with one of the worst turnover rates in 2019. Love has struggled with the deep ball and showed some gunslinger tenancies, ending Green Bay’s season with a bad interception in the Divisional Round.
However, learning under Aaron Rodgers, embracing Matt LaFleur’s offense, and studying under Tom Clements, a true QB guru, should minimize Love’s chances of becoming a bust. It would be difficult to expect him to put up the same stats he did in the final eight games of the season, where he was nigh-perfect. Still, there’s a better-than-good chance Love remains a high-quality starter capable of leading the Packers to a Super Bowl for the next decade-plus.
But the future isn’t a given. The league is filled with cautionary tales, especially at the quarterback position, and rival NFC North fans hope Love becomes one of them.
