As the sun rises on the Jordan Love Super Bowl window, the Green Bay Packers have a crucial offseason ahead. They’ll be looking to fortify their status as an ascending contender after spending a whopping two months in rebuilding mode earlier this year. They’ve made their first big decision: Joe Barry is out, and Jeff Hafley is in. We can expect a slew of defensive decisions to follow, primarily a reimagining of the secondary, for which Jaire Alexander looks to be the only safe player.
The offense is rife with young stars. Love headlines the group, but young pass-catchers Jayden Reed, Dontayvion Wicks, Romeo Doubs, Luke Musgrave, and Tucker Kraft were fantastic throughout 2023. Every piece of information we have suggests we did not see the best of Christian Watson, but he’s the alpha when healthy. Even Rasheed Walker looks like a promising David Bakhtiari replacement. Brian Gutekunst has been hitting from Steph Curry range in the past two drafts.
Down the stretch, the offense came alive when star running back Aaron Jones healed up. From the moment the season began at Soldier Field, there was a clear dichotomy between the offense with and without him. Jones’ contract suggests uncertainty about 2024, but Gutekunst made it clear that he would return. Therefore, the real backfield question is, who will be his running mate?
That role has belonged to A.J. Dillon for the past few years. The bruiser complements Jones’s dynamism and receiving ability, but he struggled as a top option in his absence. Dillon is set to hit free agency next month. While he has been a fan favorite off the field, there is no indication that the team intends to re-sign him. One of the only things we have to go on is Gutekunst’s surprisingly serious interest in the Indianapolis Colts’ Jonathan Taylor. The former Badger would have cost a Day 2 draft pick and a contract extension. Due to his size, it ostensibly reflected poorly on the team’s perception of Dillon more so than Jones. Taylor stayed put in Indy, but it gave us an inkling of what the Packers might look for.
The running back market has been a source of passionate, fascinating debate over the past few seasons. They have short careers, are relatively replaceable, and are often the product of a system. People started to pick up on it when long-term extensions for Todd Gurley, Le’Veon Bell, and David Johnson, among others, backfired on teams. The franchise tag has often been the best that the top of the market can get. That has prompted anger at the unfairness of making the league’s most physically demanding position the least lucrative.
The next chapter of this saga will be fascinating, with Derrick Henry, Josh Jacobs, Tony Pollard, Austin Ekeler, and Saquon Barkley set to hit the open market. Logic would dictate that Henry and Barkley will take priority among teams willing to pay up at the position. But by all accounts, the five of them will make it incredibly difficult for the rest of the running back market to get paid. The Packers asserted themselves last offseason as a team that may still value the position like teams did in 2019. Henry and Jones are a fun duo to dream about. But it’s hard to stomach two hefty cap hits in the backfield, particularly given the absolute circus that is the safety depth chart.
Jones’s optimal pairing will be somewhere on the liberal end of the thunder-to-lightning spectrum. In typical Green Bay fashion, that leads me back to Dillon. In addition to the tier of star-caliber, proven backs, there are plenty of productive bruisers like Gus Edwards, D’Onta Foreman, Cordarrelle Patterson, and Rico Dowdle who could push Dillon dangerously close to a veteran-minimum prove-it deal. Now that’s speaking Gutey’s language.
The downside is that while Dillon’s super-sized quads have occasionally attracted national media attention, they’re part of what makes him an incredibly one-dimensional runner. You may say, that’s the point of thunder and lightning! But Jones sat out six games this year, and it’s also been a theme for him in the past. The offense was so much worse without him because Dillon couldn’t be a No. 1. His run-to-run upside wasn’t there, nor was his receiving ability.
That takes us to the point where Gutekunst may start: the 2024 draft. The Packers have five picks in the top 100, which offers ample opportunity to throw one at a running back and still have enough capital to address the secondary and the offensive line. Trey Benson and Blake Corum stand out. The former is an FSU star who runs with size and power. The latter is a Michigan product who had a dominant college career. He doesn’t nearly have Benson’s size but appears more likely to fall. The Packers also showed a lack of aversion to tread on the tires when they targeted Taylor.
It feels like there are a million options on the table with the sheer quantity of free agents and draft picks available. With a Jordan Love extension on the horizon, even a moderate splurge on an RB2 or 1b feels excessive. There are needs on the defensive side of the ball that money would go far to address, so a cheap return for Dillon or a Dillon-adjacent figure appears extremely possible. It’s also possible that the team was as unimpressed with him as the fanbase was at times. In that case, the draft will offer a handful of opportunities to start fresh and, potentially, handpick a post-Jones bellcow. There are certainly more impactful positions on a football team, but with so many pieces looking like smash hits in the offensive skill room, nailing this one could go a long way come 2024.
