It came down to the final seconds, but the Green Bay Packers couldn’t stop the Detroit Lions on Thursday Night Football.
Even with Detroit’s heavily injured defensive line, the team was still biting kneecaps. It was a back-and-forth game with multiple lead changes between arguably the two best teams in the NFC. Thanks to some fourth-down insanity from Dan Campbell‘s twisted mind, the Packers fell to their division rival.
9-4 is still a great record, but with three of those losses to divisional opponents, this loss cements the reality that the Packers will not be NFC North champions. With four games to go, Green Bay is three behind the Lions but lose the head-to-head matchup.
At best, the Packers will fight for the fifth seed in the NFC, which is currently held by a different rival, the Minnesota Vikings.
That 9-4 record is currently good for the sixth seed in the NFC. The Washington Commanders are in seventh at 8-5, but the teams on the outside looking in are 6-6 at best. Green Bay should make the postseason as a wild-card team unless it completely chokes. With a playoff spot close to sealed but the division out of reach, how does it affect how the Packers approach the rest of the season?
All four of Green Bay’s remaining games are against NFC opponents, with two divisional games to close out the season. Winning out would put the Packers at a 13-4 record with an even 3-3 split in the NFC North.
Even if the Vikings lose to Green Bay, they’ll still have the better overall and divisional record if they win four of their next five. Therefore, the Packers need outside help to reach the fifth seed. The Lions are locking in the first NFC playoff spot. If they can gain enough of a lead on the second-seeded Philadelphia Eagles and take control of the lone bye week, there’s every chance they could sit their starters in Week 18 against the Vikings.
But there might not be a massive difference in the matchup between the fifth and sixth seeds. The Packers will play in hostile territory regardless, and the third- and fourth-seeded teams will likely have worse records than them.
The Packers would face the third-rated Seattle Seahawks (7-5), who they’ll face in the regular season next Sunday night. But the 6-6 Arizona Cardinals and 6-6 Los Angeles Rams, who the Packers have already beaten, are still in contention for the division. Green Bay is currently 3-0 against the NFC Wes. Unless they look like dog doo against the Seahawks, any of their western opponents are beatable.
The other likely possibility is that Green Bay will face the NFC South winner. The 6-6 Atlanta Falcons lead the way right now, but the 6-6 Tampa Bay Buccaneers are fighting for that spot. The Packers would head south if they make it to the fifth seed or the NFC South winner overtakes the NFC West winner.
The 4-8 New Orleans Saints are the only NFC South team the Packers will face in the regular season so that matchup wouldn’t be against a familiar opponent. But with .500 records, neither squad would be considered an NFC juggernaut. Still, it’s worth noting the Bucs are the only team to beat both the Lions and the (No. 2-seeded) Eagles, and the Falcons also beat Philadelphia.
The Packers would need to beat whichever opponent they’d face on the road. Still, there probably isn’t a massive difference in talent between the NFC South and West winners.
The worst case would be for the Packers to fall to the seventh seed, which would mean a trip to Philadelphia. I’m sure Philly is a lovely city to visit, but facing the Eagles wouldn’t be my top choice. They are the most dangerous NFC team outside of the Lions. Still, Green Bay only had a narrow loss on a slippery field where Jordan Love got injured.
The Packers don’t look for sympathy or handout victories. Matt LaFleur’s crew has shown a reinvigorated physicality and grit in his sixth season and will play every remaining game like a playoff showdown. Whatever opponent the Packers face, they’ll be ready for it.
Still, these next few weeks will be pivotal for the NFC’s Wild Card race. The Packers aren’t playing for the division. Therefore, once it’s a lock that they are in the postseason, and if there isn’t a chance to change spots, LaFleur could rest his starters for Week 18’s matchup against the interim coach-led Chicago Bears. Even if the stakes don’t matter and Jordan Love and Co. sit out, don’t expect LaFleur to phone in the game. He’s never lost to the Bears, and it would be a hoot to see Malik Willis continue LaFleur’s undefeated streak against Chicago.
What does all this mean? Expect the Packers to keep winning because they’re a good football team, and winning is part of the culture. However, the stakes are lower than we’re used to at this point in the season. For the past two seasons, the Packers were in “win out and make the playoffs” mode. Before that, they were fighting for playoff byes.
However, the NFC North is out of reach this season — and with it, a chance for the bye week. Still, the Packers would have to completely bomb to miss the postseason. Knowing they’re realistically in and that the only question is where they’ll travel means Green Bay has a chance to rest their starters to end the season.
With injuries to core players like Jaire Alexander and Edgerrin Cooper (and new ones to Javon Bullard and Evan Williams), some extra rest and no need to force a return to action is a nice plus. They’ll need a healthy squad to compete in January and February, so not fighting for their life in December is a pleasant change of pace.
Green Bay improved on last year’s squad and didn’t take the entire season to get to nine wins. But even a 13-4 record probably doesn’t win the North this season. With that in mind, the Packers still want to keep winning to stay sharp and determine their fate, but they have the flexibility and a potential chance to rest their starters and get healthy for meaningful postseason football.
