Anthony Edwards was bound to get buckets since the day the Minnesota Timberwolves drafted him. However, there was uncertainty about how he would develop and what kind of score he would become. We knew he had the athleticism, size, and strength to get to the rim. His shooting percentages were unfavorable as a freshman at Georgia, but the flashes of pull-up shooting showed how lethal he could become as a scorer.
Edwards initially wasn’t an efficient scorer. He averaged 13.6 points on 37.3% from the field and 33.3% from three in the first 20 games of his career. But once he became more comfortable on the court and got the reps he needed, we could finally see what kind of player he would become. Like many other top picks, Edwards played on a disjointed team. He was playing on a subpar roster with limited spacing, and Karl-Anthony Towns got injured in the second game of the year.
Ant figured it out as his rookie season continued, though. This development mostly comes from a high volume of three-point shots and drives. It was a long journey in Year 1, but even longer as we have continued into his fourth season. No matter where a player is in their development cycle, they will always have to adapt. That’s where Ant’s shot diet has begun to take a turn. Opposing defenses began to respect his unique ability to attack the rim and started to load up on him in the paint or play over the top of screens to take away pull-up three-point looks. That has forced a change in his shot selection, giving him more mid-range opportunities.
The graphic below shows his shot charts throughout his first four seasons. It showcases Ant’s change in shot selection as he began to get more comfortable in the league.
Edwards has increased his overall efficiency throughout the start of his career. But what stands out from these shot charts is how frequently Ant has been getting to his two-point shots outside the paint. He has increased his volume from 121 attempts in his rookie year to 153 attempts this season.
Ant’s overall largest jump in volume came from Year 2 to Year 3, where Ant doubled his non-paint two attempts, going from 103 shots to 232. Year 3 was the true turning point. It felt like Edwards was experimenting more with his mid-range shots, specifically his bank-shot jumpers.
Bank-shot jumpers by season:
- 2020/21 | 8/19 42.1%
- 2021/22 | 4/14 28.6%
- 2022/23 | 15/30 50%
- 2023/24 | 22/43 51.2%
Edwards’ bank shot jumpers are a fantastic way to exemplify how he has adapted as a scorer. Ant has adjusted as defenses sent more help to stop him from attacking the rim. He has found more ways to be effective while playing into the defense’s desires. But the better a player can re-calibrate his game to face multiple coverages, the better.
Ant’s adjustment has had its fair share of shortcomings, specifically regarding his three-point volume. This season, Edwards is taking the fewest threes per game of his career (6.4). That still ranks 41st in the league in attempts per game, but he’s shooting a career-high 38.4% from downtown. Considering Minnesota’s low volume from three as a team, he should take advantage of that.
The long two is the least effective shot in basketball, so Ant’s shot diet affects him statistically. Edwards should be shooting more three-pointers instead of two-point dribble pull-ups. Doing so will balance out Ant’s game, giving him more effective shots on the court while still allowing him to attack the defense from multiple levels. These clips encapsulate situations this season where he could have taken the three but instead put himself into a more difficult situation.
Any player who’s developing a mid-range game must consider shot difficulty. Ant is Minnesota’s No. 1 option and gets significant attention from opposing defenses. According to the NBA’s tracking data, Edwards is taking 51.8% of his field goal attempts with a defender within 0-4 feet. Players who take contested looks should do so at the rim or from three. Ant still has a lot of work to do to become one of the league’s best three-level scorers.
However, Ant is only 22. He’s still developing his scoring arsenal while evolving as a decision-maker off the dribble and is averaging 26 PPG on the 1-seed in the West. By no means should there be concern about him. He’s still developing and remains valuable to the Wolves as one of the league’s stars. But honing in on how he can better attack defenses and weaponize his mid-range jumper will only take Edwards to the next level.
