Timberwolves

Has Naz Reid Reached His Ceiling?

Photo Credit: Thomas Shea-USA TODAY Sports

Naz Reid can do no wrong in Minnesota. During his first five seasons in the NBA, the 25-year-old worked from an overweight, undersized, undrafted center into a local folk hero and the Sixth Man of the Year on a championship-contending team. It’s hard to imagine his NBA career going any better than it already has, but Reid has built his career on improving his game every season.

As the most anticipated season in Minnesota Timberwolves history quickly approaches, the team hopes to take the final step in becoming NBA champions for the first time, largely on the back of internal improvement. That improvement must come from young players like Anthony Edwards, Jaden McDaniels, Reid, and whatever Rob Dillingham can provide during his rookie season. Reid heads into his sixth season with an entire state behind him. Can he continue his ascent and become a true blue NBA star? Or has he hit his ceiling with his magnificent play last season?

Reid is already an outstanding NBA player. I don’t need to remind Timberwolves fans of that. Big Jelly averaged career highs in points (13.5), rebounds (5.2), assists (1.3), minutes (24.2), and three-point shooting percentage (41.4 percent) on his way to winning the Sixth Man of the Year award. He has become one of the most skilled big men in the league. Reid worked his ass off to slim down and get quicker. He has vastly improved his defense since entering the league in 2019. Reid’s beautiful handles and quick first step make him extra slippery at 6’9”, 264 lbs.

He’s coming off his best season ever, and it’s fair to ask if Wolves fans can expect him to keep climbing or if he’s close to his talent plateau. The best argument for continuing his steady progression is pointing to what he does when the Wolves ask him to start instead of playing behind Karl-Anthony Towns and Rudy Gobert. In 14 starts last season, Reid averaged 17.6 points, seven rebounds, and 2.1 assists in 29.3 minutes per game while shooting a blistering 42.3 percent from three in those starts.

Minnesota went 10-4 in those games and hardly missed a beat with Reid replacing the injured Towns toward the end of the season. Reid has the skills and the size to average 20 points and eight rebounds if he gets regular starting minutes, somewhere between 32 and 34 a game. He’s shown that his efficiency doesn’t decline when his role expands. He has also improved his defense enough, as he displayed when he stood up against Nikola Jokic in the second round, that Chris Finch could afford to play starter minutes without a noticeable defensive decline.

Reid’s shooting is the reason he might be closer to his ceiling than some Wolves fans would like to admit. Reid was a career 34.4 percent three-point shooter before he went nuclear last season. At 41.4 percent, his three-point percentage last season was 6.3 percentage points higher than his previous best (35.1 percent for those who can’t do math).

Unless he will unseat his teammate KAT, who shot 41.6 percent from three last year and 39.8 percent in his career as the greatest shooting big man of all time, Reid is likely at his outside shooting ceiling. He’s a career 71.7 percent free throw shooter, suggesting he doesn’t have the natural shooting stroke to sustain a Steph Curry-level run from deep for the rest of his career. If he regresses to near league average of around 36 percent, that will take points off the board and force Reid to become more efficient somewhere else to keep his scoring where it is off the bench.

Reid was mostly good in his first extended playoff run last season, but some inconsistencies stood out. His seven threes nearly saved the Wolves in a must-win game two against the Dallas Mavericks in the Western Conference Finals in a game they lost. However, Reid’s jumper mostly faltered against the Phoenix Suns, Denver Nuggets, and Mavericks. He shot 36.2 percent from three throughout the playoffs. However, if you take out the amazing 7 for 9 performance, that dips to 30 percent (18 of 60). It’s a small sample size against the league’s toughest competition, but Reid must find that playoff consistency if he wants to raise his ceiling.

Reid is already a top 100 player in the NBA and one of the key reasons the Timberwolves have the sixth-best odds of winning the 2025 NBA Championship. He’s already improved his game by leaps and bounds since his rookie year, and anyone should be satisfied with the career he’s already carved out for himself. Whether he hits his ceiling will be up to Reid and Finch.

Still, no matter how good things get, Naz Reid will always be beloved in Minnesota.

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Photo Credit: Thomas Shea-USA TODAY Sports

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