The Minnesota Timberwolves have held the league lead in defensive rating for almost the entire season, creating a new identity for themselves. But Minnesota’s opponents have begun to find better ways to match up against the Wolves’ formidable group of versatility and size. They’re starting to figure out the Timberwolves’ drop coverage defensive scheme. As a result, they have capitalized on Minnesota’s inability to cover physical offensive threats and mid-range jump shooters, who have scored on the Wolves’ defense all season.
Our earliest glimpse of this came in Minnesota’s third game of the season against the Atlanta Hawks. Dejounte Murray put on a mid-range shooting clinic, scoring 14 points on non-paint two-point jump shots alone. Murray helped single-handedly ignite a 21-point second-half comeback, shooting 5 for 5 on non-paint two-point shots in that stint. Murray’s shooting display created an early blueprint for beating Minnesota’s defense.
Physical bruising players have had the most success, though.
The Timberwolves have Rudy Gobert to hold down the paint. But it can often be difficult for him to anchor the defense and guard an elite big man. Joel Embiid exploited this hole in Minnesota’s defense when he scored 51 points in late December. The reigning MVP got anything he wanted in the Philadelphia 76ers’ 127-113 win.
When Embiid wanted to be physical, he could bang down low with KAT and Rudy. Embiid drew fouls when the Wolves got in his space. And when the defense loaded up in the paint, Embiid had plenty of space to knock down mid-range jumpers easily. Joel cruised to 51 points, shooting 11 for 14 on non-paint two-point shots and 17 for 18 from the free-throw line. Embiid put on a phenomenal performance directly from where the Wolves struggled the most, leading the Sixers to a win.
Julius Randle is another player who encapsulates that mix of those two abilities. Randle is a physical force down low but loves his dribble pull-up two-point jumpers. He had a 39-point game in the New York Knicks’ 116-106 win over the Wolves on New Year’s Day, shooting 7 of 9 from the restricted area and was 3 of 4 on non-paint two-point shots. Randle averages 37 points per game in 4 games against the Wolves.
Below are Embiid and Randle’s visual shot charts from their big performances against Minnesota:
On Wednesday, the New Orleans Pelicans also took advantage of this flaw in Minnesota’s defense. The Pelicans feature mid-range maestros in Brandon Ingram and CJ McCollum. They also have a pure bruiser in Zion Williamson who takes all his shots in the paint, and many are self-created.
Williamson and Ingram took full advantage of Minnesota’s defensive lapses. Zion scored 27 points on 11 of 15 shooting, and BI scored 19 on 7 of 11 shooting and 4 of 5 on non-paint two-point shots. Williamson and Ingam got what they wanted whenever they wanted it. McCollum scored 24 points on 8 of 16 shooting, but his ability to get within the heart of the defense caused numerous issues for the Wolves’ defense.
Furthermore, if the Timberwolves had focused on these shots by overhelping on the BI’s jumpers, CJ’s dribble penetration, or Zion’s drives, all players would have been more than capable of making a read to a corner shooter. The Pelicans shot 12 of 26 from three. The Wolves sagged off of Herb Jones the most due to his 33% three-point shooting, and Jones shot 4 of 5 beyond the arc.
The Wolves likely would trade Jones’ shooting for allowing Williamson and Ingram to beat them inside. But a minor lapse in judgment or lack of point-of-attack defense leads to easy shots:
Minnesota’s help-side defense and screen navigation must be consistent to maximize their success on defense. However, that’s hard to do for an entire season. That’s why it is more important than ever for the Wolves to focus on fixing their flaws before their playoff series, where they will likely face an elite scorer.
The Wolves have only lost nine games this season, but there is a player in each game who can take advantage of one of their two flaws. Forcing players into more mid-range shots and keeping them out of the paint is a fantastic long-term statistical goal. But the second you lose focus, it affects other facets of the game, like three-point defense, creating a vicious spiral.
