Perhaps it’s fitting that the Milwaukee Bucks had a statement win the same night the Minnesota Timberwolves beat the Los Angeles Clippers 121-100 on the road. The Bucks beat the Denver Nuggets 112-95 at home, their second win in a row after starting 1-5 under Doc Rivers. The defending champs handed Rivers a loss in his January 29 Bucks debut, but Doc’s coaching is beginning to get through in Milwaukee.
The Timberwolves and Bucks play their first game after the All-Star Break in Minneapolis. It will be a 9:00 pm ESPN game, allowing two historically overlooked franchises to captivate a national audience. Milwaukee won a title in 2021 and have Giannis Antetokounmpo signed long-term, a small-market success story. That year, Chris Finch and Co. awoke a dormant franchise. The Wolves won 46 games and multiple playoff games for the first time since 2004.
But the Wolves have yet to shake their demons from that playoff series. They blew two 25-point leads to the Memphis Grizzlies in Game 3 and a 10-point fourth-quarter lead in the elimination game. Minnesota had an opportunity to avenge that loss last year. However, they had a losing record against sub-.500 teams. The Timberwolves also squandered a 15-point fourth-quarter lead in the Play-In Game, missing an opportunity to play Memphis in the playoffs again.
A lot has changed this season. Rudy Gobert and Karl-Anthony Towns have created a formidable frontcourt after they were injured last year, and Anthony Edwards continues to evolve as a scorer. But the Wolves had started to slip after in the second half of the season. Their late-game offense occasionally stalled, and they started playing down to their competition again.
Following an overtime loss in Chicago on February 6, Minnesota lost four games when they had a lead of 10 or more entering the fourth quarter. They hadn’t blown a 10-point fourth-quarter lead in their first 41 contests. Furthermore, the Timberwolves were losing to sub-.500 teams again. The Charlotte Hornets beat them on Jan. 22 when Towns scored 62 points. The San Antonio Spurs held on for a 113-112 win during a late-January road trip; the Bulls beat them four days after the Orlando Magic outscored the Wolves 28-18 in the fourth quarter.
A mid-February road win over the Clippers hardly makes a season. But it could be a catalyst for a strong end to the month. Minnesota’s first test will be taking two in Portland, where they face another sub-.500 team before the All-Star Break. Milwaukee will test the Timberwolves in their first game back, but the Timberwolves will play their next seven games at home. The Sacramento Kings, Milwaukee, and the Clippers are the only teams with winning records during that stretch.
The Wolves have a six-game road trip after that where they’ll play the Cleveland Cavaliers, Los Angeles Lakers, Clippers, and three sub-.500 teams. Then they get seven of their next eight at home, which brings us to early April. The Timberwolves are 19-5 at home and 18-11 on the road. Therefore, they should benefit from a home-heavy schedule after the All-Star Break and beat the sub.-500 teams during their six-game road trip.
Finch and Co. raised Minnesota’s standards after they won 46 games in 2021-22. Before the season started, Tim Connelly said this year wouldn’t be a success unless the Timberwolves won a playoff series. They must retain home-court advantage to give themselves the best opportunity to advance. The Wolves will have a better chance against one of the Play-In teams than one of the six teams that qualify in a deep Western Conference.
Eliminating offensive issues late in games and losses to sub-.500 teams is a good start. The Wolves have a reliable backup point guard after trading for Monte Morris at the deadline. They can add shooting if they land Marcus Morris. And the Timberwolves have depth. But ultimately, Edwards, Towns, and Gobert must be at their best for Minnesota to take care of a favorable second-half schedule.
It starts with finishing February strong. Beat the Portland Trail Blazers twice before the All-Star Break. Don’t let the ball get sticky against Milwaukee on national television. Win three straight over the Brooklyn Nets, Spurs, and Grizzlies before games against the Kings and Clippers. The Wolves can afford to lose games to the Bucks and Clippers. Winning teams can beat Minnesota on a good night without derailing its season. But the Timberwolves need to generate late-game offense and can’t play down to their competition. They must purge that before the calendar turns to March.
