Despite the Minnesota Timberwolves having the luck on their side this season with their preferred starting lineup for 29 of their first 43 games, they have still had to make some important changes to the rotation. The change has come more from the back end, as the Wolves have been trying their best to cycle through their bench options to find impact players. Chris Finch has oscillated between the mainstay Jordan McLaughlin and new additions Shake Milton and Troy Brown Jr.
McLaughlin, Milton, and Brown are incredibly different players. McLaughlin is an undersized floor general, Milton is a mid-range shot-creator combo guard, and Troy Brown Jr. is a spacing wing with a serviceable handle. The difference in archetypes has allowed Finch to deploy whoever fits the given circumstance selectively.
Finch gave Milton the most opportunity at the beginning of the season. Shake had proven himself as a viable bench scorer in 5 seasons with the Philadelphia 76ers. Therefore, that decision was unsurprising, considering he looked like Jaylen Nowell’s replacement. Milton played 16.5 minutes per game in Minnesota’s first 22 games but didn’t produce as expected. Shake scored 6.1 points per game on 38.1% from the field and 25% from three. He still hasn’t found his rhythm this season, even though he continues to get opportunities.
TBJ got his first opportunities in the middle of Shake’s slow stint after being a reserve for most of the first 10 games of the season. But Brown played rotational minutes in the next 19 games and averaged 15.9 minutes per game, scoring 6.3 points per game on 48.8% from the field and 42.6% from three.
McLaughlin did not get an opportunity at the start of the season due to a knee injury that sidelined him for most of November. However, J-Mac was ready to go when Finch needed someone to stop the Timberwolves from turning the ball over at an alarming rate.
Finch stayed with his usual nine-man rotation after turning to McLaughlin, though. That meant that Brown returned to being a reserve. McLaughlin’s statistics will never fully measure the value he offers the Timberwolves, but his turnover percentage on/off stats highlight how he impacts Minnesota’s lineups. When McLaughlin leaves the court, the Wolves experienced a -1.2% in TO%. For comparison, TBJ has a TO% on/off difference of +0.7%. While they have different positional fits, it is enough to showcase how McLaughlin impacts the lineups around him.
Therefore, Finch must decide what he wants to prioritize. He can minimize turnovers by deploying J-Mac or Brown’s floor spacing and wing size. That’s assuming Finch continues to roll with a nine-man rotation as he has throughout the season.
The chart below lays out how some of the minute distributions have looked based on healthy 8-man rotation and the alternative options of the 9-man rotations:
If Finch goes back to a 10-man rotation, he could prioritize both players simultaneously. That would disperse Kyle Anderson’s minutes. Anderson has had his fair share of turnover issues, turning the ball over 1.4 times a game in his 22.6 MPG this year. Anderson is fresh off an outlier shooting season and has been a non-factor spacing the floor. By going to a 10-man rotation, the Wolves could prioritize lineups better and limit the number of lineups that have two non-shooters on the court simultaneously.
Brown has shot well all across the three-point line, allowing the Wolves to stopgap that issue. By ensuring Rudy Gobert lineups have proper spacing. Per cleaningtheglass.com, which filters out garbage time, TBJ is shooting:
- 26/63 (41%) Overall from 3P | 83rd percentile for wings
- 15/37 (41%) Above the break 3P | 81st percentile for wings
- 11/25 (42%) Corner 3P | 61st percentile for wings
Jordan McLaughlin can always eat up minutes for Mike Conley; MC is 36, and the Wolves are wise to monitor his workload. Nickeil Alexander-Walker can be a lead initiator, though. That could be a pivot point if the Wolves wanted to make other changes. That allows Brown to earn minutes while the backup point guard duties are still being covered.
Ultimately, the Wolves should not have to choose between Brown or McLaughlin. The NBA regular season is a tumultuous journey full of highs, lows, and team fatigue. If they are in games against inferior opponents, Finch should elect to deepen the rotation, giving everyone in the rotation a lesser minutes load.
The Timberwolves have said they want to eschew load management and play their players when they are healthy. But it would be costly to burn their star players out, especially Conley, in the regular season. They must always prioritize preparing their team for the playoffs. The Wolves must discover what they have in their end-of-bench players in this back half of the season to ensure trust for the important playoff minutes ahead.
