Locks
No locks today. The way yesterday’s plays went down hurt my soul. Seriously, wtf was that.
Degenerates
NBA LA Lakers/Minnesota Timberwolves First Quarter Under 52.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 8:30 PM CT on ESPN
I’m sticking with this angle since it’s 5-1 across all meetings this season, with an average of 48.3 first quarter points. The games in this series both saw 49 points in the first quarter as these teams have played a tough, grind-it-out style. There’s also been a different whistle across the league, keeping teams from getting to the free throw line, which in this case is the Wolves since the Lakers apparently don’t commit fouls at all. But that also keeps the scoring ceiling lower, and I think these teams stay under it again tonight.
MLB LA Angels/Minnesota Twins First 5 Innings Under 4.5 (-120; Odds via Fanduel): 6:40 PM CT on Fanduel Sports West
Don’t expect much early scoring anywhere in downtown Minneapolis tonight with LA teams in town. It’d be hilarious if the Wild were hosting the Kings instead of the Golden Knights, but I digress. This has the feel of a dead under, as the Twins offense has been nonexistent even in a three-game set against White Sox pitching. And a hot start to the season for the Angels bats has disintegrated the past couple of weeks, and I don’t see them doing much against Pablo Lopez who comes off the IL tonight. Cool, damp weather with the wind blowing in at Target Field also helps keep runs to a minimum, and this one should be ugly early for hitters.
MLB Miami Marlins/Seattle Mariners Yes Run First Inning (+100; Odds via Fanduel): 8:40 PM CT on ROOT Sports NW
This is actually my favorite bet of the day, but still, no locks, I’m in too much pain. I might be late to the party here with Seattle and their first inning run streak, but I don’t see it ending here. After a very Mariners start to the season, the offense has actually picked up a bit, and they’re now 3rd in MLB for YRFI percentage. Going 12 straight games with at least one team scoring in the first certainly helps, and facing a pitcher like Cal Quantrill also really helps. Seattle might have to do the work to get this home, but Quantrill has been awful for Miami so I’m feeling confident about it at this good price.
Past 7 days Tiny Tracker: 14-16 (-1.8 Units) – Recommend: Tail With Caution
Tiny Nick has been writing betting picks for Zone Coverage since 2020. Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are what he’s most confident in, while Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.
