Locks
NBA (1 Unit) Karl-Anthony Towns Over 35.5 Points+Rebounds (-110; Odds via DraftKings): 7:00 PM CT on TNT
This number has adjusted upwards from Game 1, but not nearly enough to account for the damage KAT is doing to Indiana this season. After a massive game on Wednesday night, Towns is averaging 43.5 on this prop against the Pacers in 4 meetings this season. They just don’t have an answer for him, and their style of pushing tempo just creates so much opportunity for KAT to rack up stats with how many minutes he’s logging. The Knicks will lean on their stars even more in this desperation game, so expect a big night out of Towns here.
Bonus Bet (0.5 Unit): Indiana Pacers Team Total Over 109.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars)
The Pacers offense is clicking, especially in the final few minutes of games for whatever reason, so this total feels a bit low for how well they’ve played. With so much depth and such a fast tempo, Indiana just keeps coming at you in waves, generating lots of possessions and scoring well in transition. That’s why they’ve gone over this number in 9 of their 11 postseason games against strong defensive teams, and should be able to keep it going here against a tiring Knicks squad.
MLB (0.75 Unit) KC Royals/Minnesota Twins First 5 Innings Under 4 (-105; Odds via Caesars): 7:10 PM CT on Fanduel Sports KC
I don’t see offense coming from either team in this one, and there should be a very quiet start thanks to excellent pitching. Neither of these offenses inspires much confidence, especially not the Twins while Byron Buxton and Carlos Correa are still on the shelf, and both are in the bottom-third of MLB in overall scoring.
Pablo Lopez starting for the Twins should hold Kansas City down fairly easily, as he has excellent numbers against them in his career and already did it once this season. The Twins have never seen rookie Royals starter Noah Cameron, who has been excellent in his early big league action, and Minnesota really struggles against lefties in general at 24th in scoring and 25th in weighted runs created. None of the four meetings this season went over this number, and I expect the same tonight.
MLB (1 Unit) Miami Marlins/LA Angels Over 8 (-115; Odds via DraftKings): 8:38 PM CT on Fanduel Sports FL
I just don’t think books have adjusted to the fact that while Sandy Alcantara is taking the mound, this is not the true Sandy anymore. He’s been getting absolutely shelled this season, and things get abjectly awful on the road where his ERA has blown up to 14.81 to go along with a 2.71 WHIP. The Angels are destroying bad pitching lately, and should jump all over the vulnerable Alcantara.
But don’t discount the Marlins either, who are now 13-7 to the over on the road with the league’s highest plus/minus to the total. They’ve been solid against lefties like Angels starter Yusei Kikuchi, and should be able to do damage against the awful LA bullpen. These teams are second and third in MLB for best records to the over, so look for another on this very low total.
WNBA (0.5 Unit) Connecticut Sun @ Minnesota Lynx -16 (-110; Odds via DraftKings): 6:30 PM CT on ION
Lynx, I’m begging you, give me something out of Target Center to be happy about after last night. They should destroy this Sun team if they want to, as Connecticut has completely torn down the roster that was a perennial contender in the league. The Sun were run out at home by 25 points when Las Vegas came to town, so if the Lynx consider themselves on the same level as the Aces they should look to make a statement. Ideally they’ll get Kayla McBride back tonight to help with that so monitor her status, but the Sun are really bad and this line is no mistake.
WNBA (0.5 Unit) Washington Mystics/Las Vegas Aces Over 167.5 (-110; Odds via BetMGM): 9:00 PM CT on ION
This total is on the rise with the expectation that the Aces will continue their habit of having massive games at home. They should be able to name their score here if they truly want to run the Mystics out, and that would be in line with how they handled below-average squads in home games last year. The Aces routinely scored in the 90’s against overmatched visitors last season, which puts a total like this well within reach.
But swapping Kelsey Plum for Jewell Lloyd hasn’t done anything to fix a defense that was a liability last year, and the Mystics are due for a bounce back shooting game here. I think the pace will be turned up here by both squads, and Las Vegas looking to show out in their home opener should push this one over the total.
Degenerates
No degenerates today.
Past 7 days Tiny Tracker: 11-14 (-2.0 Units) – Recommend: Tail With Confidence
Tiny Nick has been writing betting picks for Zone Coverage since 2020. Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are what he’s most confident in, while Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.
