Locks
NCAA Football (1 Unit) 3-Team 7 Point Teaser (+120; Odds via Fanduel)
Air Force/Navy Over 44.5: 11:00 AM CT on CBS
A service academy game with a total in the 50’s? I’m not sure I thought I’d ever see the day, but here we are and it’s completely justified. This will not be your typical run-heavy, dueling triple options game that has generated some ridiculously low totals in recent years. Both Air Force and Navy can throw it, and neither is afraid to get into a shootout, pardon the pun.
The easiest way to reach this adjusted number is by Navy and Blake Horvath to throw all over this Air Force defense that has allowed 49, 49, and 44 points to its three FBS opponents. The Falcons are allowing the 4th-most passing yards in the country, so that would be the smart way for Navy to attack. But Liam Szarka’s dual threat ability for Air Force will guide them to plenty of points as well, so at under the key number of 45 I’m liking this game to fly and/or sail over the total, pun intended.
Vanderbilt/Alabama Over 49.5: 2:30 PM CT on ABC
Alabama’s defense has not been tested at home yet, as they’ve only hosted a cupcake and a terrible Wisconsin offense. That changes today with Vanderbilt coming to town, as their run game and ability to generate explosive plays on the ground will highlight Bama’s biggest vulnerability. The Commodores have the best YPC average in the conference, and are finishing drives when it counts so I think they’ll be able to hang here and put up plenty of points.
But I also think Vandy is vulnerable through the air, and that seems to be the identity that’s taking over the Alabama offense under Kalen DeBoer. This is a very talented receiver room for the Tide, and Ty Simpson’s accuracy will be a big factor in Bama cutting through a Vandy secondary that was finally exposed by an up-tempo pass attack last week. With Diego Pavia and Vanderbilt so good in the underdog role this should be more of a back-and-forth affair, and only needing 7 total touchdowns is a nice discount.
Boise St/Notre Dame Over 55.5: 2:30 PM CT on NBC
Notre Dame overs until further notice, period, and this adjusted number getting below 8 total touchdowns is great value. The Irish scoring 56 points in consecutive weeks shows me where this team’s mentality is right now, as they realize their CFP dreams hang by a thread. That seems to have convinced them that blowouts and running up the score are necessary to compensate for an 0-2 start, and I don’t think they’ll have trouble putting another one on Boise State here.
The Broncos have really struggled to defend anything on the road, giving up 34 and 37 to offenses that don’t come anywhere close to what they’ll see today. But they’ve been scoring like crazy themselves to make up for a bad opening loss, and I think they can take advantage of Notre Dame’s defense here. The Irish had a good game last week containing Taylen Green, so now they’re only 121st in passing yards allowed. Maddux Madsen should produce enough for Boise to contribute to getting over this total, which Notre Dame might go and clear themselves if they feel like it.
NCAA Football (0.75 Unit) Oklahoma First Half Team Total Over 29.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 3:00 PM CT on SEC Network
This is a tricky situational spot for Oklahoma that could go a number of different ways, but I’m banking on a specific angle working out. It’s the first of a few weeks for the Sooners without starting QB John Mateer, which will include next week’s Red River Rivalry that OU might be looking ahead to and be a little flat today. Alternatively, it’s a great opportunity for them to get Michael Hawkins some much needed experience and do it against the softest of defenses.
Kent State can’t stop anything, which is why they’ve been demolished by the two quality opponents they’ve faced. They’ve gone on the road to Texas Tech and to Florida State, giving up 48 and 45 points, respectively, before halftime. So Hawkins getting an opportunity to light it up with his arm and legs against the country’s worst team by yards allowed and second-worst by points allowed should result in another massive point total allowed in the first half.
Degenerates
No degenerates today.
Past 7 days Tiny Tracker: 27-22 (+4.73 Units) – Recommend: Tail With Caution
Tiny Nick has been writing betting picks for Zone Coverage since 2020. Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are what he’s most confident in, while Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.
