It feels like déjà vu that the Minnesota Vikings have to go on the road again to play the Los Angeles Rams on Monday night. The two teams played on Oct. 24, four days after the Vikings lost to the Detroit Lions.
The Rams activated Puka Nacua off injured reserve just four hours before the game, forcing Minnesota’s defense to scramble and allowing him to catch seven passes for 106 yards. There was no bounce-back performance from the Vikings. They lost 30-20, falling to 5-2.
Nacua’s surprised activation wasn’t the sole reason for the loss. The Vikings were without Blake Cashman, one of the defense’s most important players. Minnesota is 13-1 this season when he plays. His intelligence and physicality make him a force in the run and pass games.
A short week of preparation didn’t help the Vikings in their first matchup, either. Their 31-29 loss to the Lions four days prior was emotional and physical. They had a short week to recover and had to fly out to LA, further hastening their preparation.
That all slowed down Minnesota’s pass rush, which had its worst performance of the season. It was the only game in which the Vikings didn’t record a sack. They pressured Matthew Stafford a season-low four times on an 11.8% pressure rate, per NFL Next Gen Stats.
One play highlighted the night for the Vikings. They led 14-7 when the Rams marched to their seven-yard line. Stafford took the snap, evaded a sack from Jonathan Greenard, ducked under Harrison Phillips, and threw to Cooper Kupp in the end zone to tie the game. A sack would have set the Rams up for a third-and-goal at the 17-yard line. Instead, missed opportunities by two of Minnesota’s most reliable defenders helped change the game.
Let’s start by looking at the absence of Cashman in the first game. Kamu Grugier-Hill filled in as the team’s second inside linebacker in that game, but Josh Metellus started in place of Cashman. Metellus is a versatile player who lines up all over the defensive side of the ball. But he is still undersized as a true linebacker, standing 5’11”, 207 lbs. Cashman has the more traditional linebacker build, standing 6’1”, 235 lbs.
Cashman had 161 pass-rush snaps during the regular season. Although that was the eighth-highest on the team, his 33 pressures were the fourth-highest. But against the Rams, the Vikings didn’t use Metellus or Grugier-Hill to rush the passer. Metellus only blitzed four times and never registered a pressure. Grugier-Hill only played five total snaps and never blitzed Stafford.
Unfortunately, no one else on the defense stepped up in their place. Ivan Pace Jr. generates pressure on 27.1% of blitzes but only blitzed six times. He registered two pressures, but the low volume kept him from making a more significant impact. According to Next Gen Stats, Greenard and Phillips were the only two players to register pressures. They had two pressures, including the missed sack on Stafford.
That isn’t to take any credit away from the Rams. Stafford had one of his best games of the season, completing 73.5% of his passes and tying a season-high with four touchdown passes. And his +0.49 EPA/dropback was by far the best quarterback rate against the Vikings all year.
Unsurprisingly, the Rams had success when they protected Stafford. He played seven games where he didn’t get sacked, and the Rams won all of them. Their only loss when giving up two or fewer sacks came in Week 1 when they lost 26-20 in overtime to the Lions.
LA’s commitment to running the ball was another reason they were efficient through the air. They ran for 107 yards against the Vikings, which is only Minnesota’s sixth-highest single-game total allowed all year. But they ran Kyren Williams 23 times for 97 yards, a 4.2-yard average; that isn’t game-breaking, but it shows that Sean McVay didn’t want to become one-dimensional. A whopping 48.5% of play calls were runs, the second-highest rate against the Vikings all season.
The Rams’ running game finished the season strong. Four of their five highest-yardage outputs came in December, including a 44-42 win over the Buffalo Bills, where Stafford threw for 320 yards and two touchdowns. LA still ran Williams and Blake Corum 37 times for 121 yards and two rushing touchdowns. That’s only a 3.3 yards-per-carry average, but it again shows that the Rams will do what it takes to avoid being one-dimensional.
Los Angeles was also desperate in Week 8, an underrated aspect of that first meeting. They entered the game 2-4 and needed one of their best performances of the year after narrowly defeating the Las Vegas Raiders 20-15. Would the Rams have been inclined to activate Nacua at the last minute if they were 3-3 or 4-2 going into that game? Without him, would their offensive gameplan have neutralized Minnesota’s pass rush as much as it did?
There’s no room for excuses in the NFL. Minnesota’s loss to the Rams earlier this season can be attributed to several factors that won’t affect Monday night’s game. But these circumstances forced the Vikings’ pass rush to have its worst game of the season by a large margin. Advancing in the playoffs starts with getting after Stafford.
