The Minnesota Vikings will roll out a revamped offense in 2026 that features the new additions of Jauan Jennings and, presumably, Kyler Murray. While the passing offense sputtered last season, this season offers a tantalizing outlook, but one that also has plenty of mouths to feed.
Minnesota now employs arguably three No. 1 receivers, a former Pro Bowl tight end, and an assortment of running backs who are all looking to get their slice of the pie. It’s not a bad problem to have. Still, how exactly will Murray spread the wealth this year?
Murray has averaged 34 pass attempts per game over his career. Assuming he stays healthy for all 17 this year, that would be about 578 pass attempts in 2026. With Kevin O’Connell’s penchant for throwing the ball, it feels like a reasonable number to build from in this exercise. A career completion percentage of 67.1 gives him 387 completions on the year. And boiling down his other career averages would project 24 touchdowns to 12 interceptions, and 4,025 yards.
So, let’s divide these up among some hungry pass catchers.
Justin Jefferson is still the clear No. 1, and he’s looking for a big rebound in 2026 after needing all of Week 18 to keep his 1,000-yard streak alive in 2025. But with the addition of Jennings and Jordan Addison‘s rise, is that streak already in jeopardy again?
Jefferson has averaged nine targets and six catches per game throughout his career, but I expect this year to be below average in that sense. That’s not a knock on Jefferson, but more that the Vikings have surrounded him with some serious playmakers. Still, he’s the best receiver in the league, and Murray will find ways to get him the ball even if Jefferson isn’t breaking Calvin Johnson’s all-time record.
Jefferson’s Projected Numbers: 145 targets (25% share), 94 catches for 1,291 yards and six touchdowns
Addison and Jennings both figure to have highly productive seasons, but in much different ways.
After the Vikings let Speedy Nailor scamper away in free agency, Addison has become somewhat of the de facto deep threat in this offense. Addison isn’t a true burner, but Minnesota will need someone to fill the void. Besides, Jennings offers another skill the Vikings have desperately needed. Over the last two seasons, Jennings has had a 60% contested catch rate, significantly higher than the 50/50 historical rate for the league, and an area where Minnesota’s smaller receivers haven’t been able to produce.
Jennings also had more red zone targets than Jefferson in 2025, and it’s unlikely that changes in 2026. At 6’3”, he’ll lead the way in scores for receivers, even if his catches and yards pale in comparison to Jefferson and Addison.
Addison’s Projected Numbers: 97 targets (17% share), 67 catches for 864 yards and four touchdowns
Jennings’ Projected Numbers: 87 targets (15% share), 60 catches for 707 yards and seven touchdowns
Most fans, and apparently the Vikings themselves, are down on T.J. Hockenson after a disappointing season that led to a pay cut. After his breakout in 2023, a brutal knee injury has rendered him a completely different player, it seems. But in 2024, in the last full season Murray played, he targeted tight end Trey McBride a whopping 147 times, making a Hockenson resurgence seem realistic.
Hockenson probably isn’t going to fully recapture the player he was before the injury, but a lot more people should be bullish on a guy who is still only 28 and looking to reignite his career. While he had a bit of a case of the dropsies last year, his career 70% catch rate is still enough to feel confident that he can put those issues behind him in 2026.
Hockenson’s Projected Numbers: 81 targets (14% share), 61 catches for 608 yards and two touchdowns
After the big four, the math wizards out there will note that 168 targets are still up for grabs. Aaron Jones is the most likely candidate to receive the biggest chunk of those, with Jordan Mason and Demond Claiborne or Zavier Scott mixing in sparingly. Josh Oliver is typically good for about 25 targets per year and will take a few breaks from blocking to hit those numbers again. The remaining few go to Tai Felton, or potentially surprise UDFA Dillon Bell as WR4, and whoever else the Vikings may shuttle out to the field.
Aaron Jones’ Projected Numbers: 42 targets (7% share), 27 catches for 155 yards and one touchdown
Mason/Claiborne/Scott Projected Numbers: 49 targets, 30 catches for 163 yards and one touchdown
Josh Oliver Projected Numbers: 28 targets (5% share), 20 catches for 101 yards, and three touchdowns
The Rest: 49 targets, 28 catches for 146 yards and zero touchdowns
The top three receivers are getting almost 60% of the target share, which is actually right on pace for last year’s average. It may be surprising at first, considering the potential upgrade at WR3. Still, it may actually be beneficial to have other reliable places to go with the ball.
Last season, Jefferson had a blistering 30% target share, but only two of the top 10 receivers in that category made the postseason. So while the numbers for Vikings pass catchers might not look gaudy individually, that probably means the year went much better than in 2025.
