The Minnesota Vikings are heading into free agency ready to spend. With $63 million in cap space, the most they’ve had in years, the Vikings are expected to be the top suitor for several top-tier free agents to elevate a roster that went 14-3 last season, only to get bounced in the first round of the playoffs.
But even with a world of possibilities, fans wanted this money to be used in one way — to put an end to the question, Can he play guard?
To that, there was a solution.
Trey Smith, a 6’5”, 321 lb. offensive guard coming off his first Pro Bowl appearance, was hitting the market. The Chicago Bears were firing the opening shots of a bidding war, and the Vikings were ready to go bid-for-bid. That is until breaking news from Indianapolis revealed the Kansas City Chiefs had placed the franchise tag on him, virtually making him a lock to return in 2025.
Vikings fans must be devastated. Visions of Dakota Dozier, Dru Samia, and Pat Elflein are dancing in their heads. The thought of converting Walter Rouse from offensive tackle or rolling with another year of Blake Brandel may have flushed all optimism out the window.
But even though Smith was coveted as much as a Nintendo 64 on Christmas morning, the Chiefs may have been doing the Vikings a favor as they head into free agency.
It would have been great if Smith landed in Minnesota. A top tackle prospect in the 2021 draft, he plummeted due to health concerns, and the Chiefs selected him in the sixth round. Like many forms of Kansas City witchcraft, this turned out in Patrick Mahomes’ favor. The Chiefs paired him with center Creed Humphrey and guard Joe Thuney to form one of the most dominant interior offensive lines in football.
Smith was also dominant by Vikings standards. According to Pro Football Focus, his 75.1 overall grade last season was higher than any Minnesota guard since Brett Jones posted a 77.6 in three games in 2020. If we narrow it down to qualifiers (20% of the league lead in snaps), Smith’s grade would be the highest since Brandon Fusco posted an 84.1 in 2013.
Smith became Minnesota’s messiah of the trenches, a dude who enjoys steaks and weights just as much as pancaking Kenny Clark — or any other defensive tackle, for that matter. But as much as fans would celebrate the deal, it would also come with tremendous pressure.
Steve Hutchinson was the last guard the Vikings signed of this magnitude. In that case, Hutchinson became an All-Pro and set the tone across the offensive line through the late 2000s. Adrian Peterson ran wild behind him, and Hutchinson eventually was inducted into the Hall of Fame and the Vikings Ring of Honor.
It may have been 14 years since Hutchinson last suited up for the Vikings, but those are the shoes that Smith would have been stepping into. Smith’s ability suggests that he is more than capable of living up to that hype. However, it would have created a midwestern, passive-aggressive crucible when he allows a quarterback pressure at over $20 million per season.
Still, the disappointment overshadows this. Who will play guard? Can they help Garrett Bradbury? Will they hope new assistant offensive line coach Keith Carter’s mean-guy routine gets the best out of the offensive line?
These questions probably won’t be answered until free agency opens or, in some cases, when the Vikings hit the field. But there can also be a silver lining to this disappointment.
We talked a little bit about how pivoting from Smith could result in spreading the $60 million around and adding multiple pieces to make this team better. Instead of paying $20 million for one guard, the Vikings could get a combination of Will Fries, Patrick Mekari, or Teven Jenkins. (We would also put Mekhi Becton here, but his previous relationship with Carter probably rules him out.)
Even if the Vikings don’t get two guards, they could run it back with Brandel. He posted a serviceable 65.7 PFF grade and allowed just six quarterback pressures in six games before Christian Darrisaw’s season-ending injury in Week 7.
You may be skeptical, considering Brandel’s play dropped off considerably when Darrisaw went down, but this is where Carter’s hiring could be a good thing. Although he has a checkered past, he also has an impressive resumé, establishing a strong running game for Marshawn Lynch, Derrick Henry, and Breece Hall.
It’s unlikely that Kevin O’Connell will allow the negative aspects of his coaching style to shine through in Minnesota’s operating-room clean culture. Therefore, Carter’s methods could get the most out of players who may have previously been disappointing.
That would decrease what Minnesota needs in free agency. Needing just one guard on the right side could help the Vikings invest in more resources elsewhere, take advantage of a crazy-deep defensive tackle class, and perhaps add a secondary weapon to Brian Flores’ defense.
It may not be enough to wipe away the tears of Vikings fans who want someone to play guard. But it’s also ridding them of what could have been a high-pressure situation for an athlete switching teams. Ultimately, the Vikings could turn out okay, and losing out on Smith could become the best thing to happen to this team entering 2025.
