Nothing drives engagement like the end-of-the-year awards.
I’m convinced that the NFL Media Industrial Complex created awards like MVP, Comeback Player of the Year, and Coach of the Year to ensure shows like First Take never run out of things to argue about. The conditions for these awards are kept so purposefully ambiguous that pundits can take whatever stance they need to drive their engagement without repercussion.
Because I have very little personal shame, I would like to plant my flag and stake my claim for who I feel should be the undisputed favorite for Coach of the Year.
Kevin O’Connell should have this award locked up already. However, if Minnesota wins in Detroit this week, give him the award at the end of the postgame locker room speech.
Draft Kings has O’Connell as a heavy favorite for Coach of the Year. He’s -1000 to win the award. Dan Campbell is his closest competition (+500) and will stand on the other sideline this week. Other fringe candidates include Andy Reid at +1400 and Dan Quinn at +2000. That implies that Vegas considers this a near lock to be going to one of the two NFC North-leading men, with O’Connell holding a significant advantage.
Why is that, though? The NFL media universally loves Campbell. We’re talking about a guy who’s got Detroit, of all franchises, as an NFC favorite for the Super Bowl! The team infamous for 0-16 is now 14-2 heading into the season’s final week and deserves the award! The Lions are biting kneecaps and have formed an identity. The Lions have taken on Campbell’s image throughout the organization.
Dan Campbell is elite at building a culture. He has proven to be one of the best in the business at enabling and empowering his coordinators to be among the top schematic coaches in the league. Despite what detractors say, what Ben Johnson and Aaron Glenn have done under Campbell’s leadership is a credit to Campbell’s case as the Coach of the Year.
Great head coaches invest in their staff and bring out their greatness. It’s clear that the confidence Campbell has in his coordinators has been part of what’s made Detroit’s offense revolutionary and allowed their defense to persist despite the rash of injuries late in the season. Not every head coach would let their OC galaxy brain downfield hook-and-ladder plays to his left tackle, but Campbell gave his guy that kind of autonomy.
Yet I agree with the odds on Campbell being Vegas’ No. 2 candidate here. This should be O’Connell’s award to lose.
People often arbitrarily place NFL coaches under two umbrellas: culture guys or scheme guys. I just finished singing the praises of arguably the NFL’s best Culture Guy in Campbell, and we’ve seen countless Scheme Guy head coaches take over the league.
Guys like Kyle Shannahan and Mike McDaniel differentiate themselves, often early in their tenures, by setting themselves apart with unique and innovative mastery of scheme. Occasionally, it feels like this award wants to favor one archetype over the other, depending on the season. Sometimes, voters favor head coaches who are play-callers, or other times they give the nod to “leaders of men” instead.
Over his three years in Minnesota, O’Connell has proven to be the perfect blend of both.
O’Connell has led the Vikings, which many people thought would be a sub-.500 team and favored to finish last in the division, to a 14-2 record and in contention for the NFC’s best squad. He’s molded the once-promising clay many had cast off in Sam Darnold, turning him from a bust to a fringe MVP candidate. O’Connell’s culture and schematic mastery have transformed Minnesota into a legitimate NFC contender several years ahead of schedule.
Schematically, the results speak for themselves. Darnold is a 4,000-yard passer. Despite losing their franchise star left tackle, Christian Darrisaw, the offense is top 10 in points per game (ninth), first downs per game (ninth), red-zone TD percentage (10th), and overall PFF grade (fifth). Perhaps most remarkably, he does this seemingly without wild gimmicks or tricks. O’Connell may have a few of those hidden away for a rainy day, but he’s found this kind of success by executing the staples of his offense to perfection.
If I’m going to praise Campbell for empowering his coaching staff, I must do the same for O’Connell. QB coach Josh McCown has worked wonders with Darnold from a mechanical and schematic standpoint. Keenan McCardell has star power to work with in Justin Jefferson and Jordan Addison but has also turned players like Jalen Nailor into meaningful contributors in crucial moments.
However, Brian Flores has to be atop that list of assistant coaches.
I would’ve loved to have been present for the interview between KOC and Brian Flores when Flores pitched his vision for this defense to O’Connell. It is a massive credit to O’Connell that he received this completely unhinged concept, saw the spark of mad genius, and constructed the organizational philosophy around it defensively.
Many offensive-minded coaches opt for guys who can stop the bleeding on defense so that their offense can win games. That may have been O’Connell’s idea when he hired Ed Donatell.
However, by hiring Flores, he embraced the all-gas, no-brakes mentality Flores has brought and empowered him to achieve that vision, to incredible success. It would’ve been easy, especially after the late-season collapse on defense last year, to dismiss Flores’ manic defense as a gimmick without staying power. Instead, they doubled down and perfected it with scheme and personnel this offseason.
Some will argue that the Coach of the Year should go to the coach of the best team in the league. Others will say that Coach of the Year should go to the coach who does more with less. For others, it’s about the coach who overcomes great adversity.
Kevin O’Connell coaches one of the best teams in the league, who is playing for the No. 1 seed on Sunday. Given the preseason perception of the talent on Minnesota’s roster, O’Connell has done more than anyone could’ve imagined, considering he’s doubled his projected Vegas win total. He overcame losing two cornerbacks to injury and a tragic circumstance in the preseason. His heir apparent at QB tore his meniscus, lost his franchise left tackle in October, didn’t have his franchise tight end until Week 9, and still managed to win 14 games.
If there’s ever been an open and shut case for this award, O’Connell is that. Suppose he manages to go into Ford Field this weekend and snatch homefield advantage throughout the playoffs from the jaws of Campbell’s Lions. In that case, this isn’t just a coaching job that merits Coach of the Year but one of the best seasons by a head coach in recent memory.
This team is special. This locker room is special. And it’s because the job that Kevin O’Connell has done is worthy of Coach of the Year.
