In some strange alternate reality, Aaron Rodgers is quarterbacking the Minnesota Vikings this season. Would the offense be any better? Only a mystical darkness retreat or some whimsical mushrooms could tell us that.
But, in reality, both the Vikings and Rodgers’ Pittsburgh Steelers enter their Week 4 matchup at 2-1, looking for some good luck in Dublin. Unfortunately for Rodgers, the luck of the Irish may not be enough to overcome one huge problem that the Minnesota defense presents.
Against pressure this season, Rodgers has posted a -0.87 EPA per dropback, which ranks 30th out of 31 qualified quarterbacks. The only signal caller worse is, go figure, Cincinnati Bengals quarterback Jake Browning, who had the unfortunate privilege of playing against the Vikings last week. While some of the blame can be attributed to Pittsburgh’s uneven offensive line, which has allowed pressure on 30% of Rodgers’ dropbacks, he’s been poor in virtually every metric when facing heat.
Rodgers is also dead last in the league in completion percentage under pressure (27.3%) and has the worst PFF grade among qualified passers under pressure. Those types of numbers don’t bode well for a team about to face one of the most creative, deceptive, and aggressive defenses in football.
The last time Rodgers faced Minnesota, in the 2024 London game, he threw three interceptions. That may also weigh heavily on his mind. So, while Rodgers has seven touchdowns and decent passing numbers on the surface, a deeper look shows a player struggling with the one thing the Vikings do best.
Brian Flores and the Minnesota defense are known for turning up the heat on opposing quarterbacks, and the Vikings are second only to the Denver Broncos this year in terms of generating pressure. That’s not great news for Rodgers, who has resembled more of a rookie quarterback through three games than a 20-year veteran when pressured.
Maybe he’s simply looking out for his health. Or could it be because he can’t move in the pocket like he could in his prime? Either way, Rodgers hasn’t been able to handle defensive linemen getting up close and personal this year. He does, to his benefit, already know that the pressure will be coming early and often on Sunday.
“Well, they’re going to bring pressure at some point, and you’ve got to have some ideas to combat that. So you’ve got to expect it,” said Rodgers. “They do a good job of disguising. Everything looks the same. You don’t want them to get going, and sack you a bunch, and play behind the sticks.”
Knowing that Flores will be sending torpedoes at his chest all game, Rodgers will almost certainly be looking to get the ball out quickly, just like he’s done all season. He has the lowest average depth of target at just 5.4 yards this year, nearly half of what league leaders Lamar Jackson and Russell Wilson average.
Last season with the Jets, which by no means was a great year, Rodgers averaged 7.1 ADOT. Trading for a great deep-threat like D.K. Metcalf hasn’t seemed to sway Rodgers towards launching the ball deeper either. Metcalf has just 52 yards receiving over the past two weeks.
Even more, Rodgers’ average air yards per completion is just 3.1 yards this year, last in the league by nearly a yard. It’s not too much of a surprise that he’s throwing the ball just a few feet past the line of scrimmage, though. Rodgers has the third-lowest time to throw this year at just 2.6 seconds, according to NextGen Stats. So, it’s fairly obvious that Pittsburgh’s strategy to keep the 41-year-old quarterback upright will be to throw the ball one nanosecond after it touches his hands.
It’s not the worst game plan for Pittsburgh. After all, they are 2-1, and against a team like the Vikings, who rank 25th this season in missed tackles, maybe a few of those dinks and dunks will spring loose. But unless the Steelers are fine facing a loaded box every play of the game, they’ll need to let it fly eventually. Minnesota’s secondary was once considered the biggest weakness on the defense, but it has actually been one of the greatest strengths, allowing the third-fewest yards through the air in the NFL after three weeks.
The Vikings excel at bringing pressure, and Aaron Rodgers has struggled to beat it, creating a fortuitous opportunity for Minnesota to head to London with a 3-1 record. However, to pull off the win, the Vikings will need to think creatively. Rodgers still has a high football IQ, and disguising blitzes won’t be as easy as in prior weeks. Still, there’s an obvious hole in Pittsburgh’s steel, and the Vikings are exactly the team with the best chance at exploiting it.
