If you believe ESPN’s metrics, the Minnesota Vikings technically started losing control of Sunday’s game when the officials flagged Dallas Turner for an illegal hit on Lamar Jackson.
ESPN gave the Vikings a 47.6% chance to win the game before he sacked Jackson with 10 seconds left in the first half. Instead of ending the quarter down 10-6, Tyler Loop converted a 30-yard field goal to make it 10-9.
Still, most who watched Minnesota’s 27-19 loss to the Ravens would tell you that Baltimore fully seized momentum when Marlon Humphrey picked J.J. McCarthy off on his deep throw to Justin Jefferson on third-and-one during the Vikings’ first drive out of the break.
The Vikings had an opportunity to double-dip when they got the ball back up 10-6 with 1:11 left in the first half. They had enough time to score before the half, then again after it. A touchdown and field goal would be enough to take a commanding 20-6 lead; 24-6 would be even more secure.
However, the Vikings passed three times, completing only one for five yards, and gave the ball back to Baltimore with 28 seconds left. Four plays and 63 yards later, the Ravens have cut the lead to one.
One drive later, they’d take command of the game.
Aaron Jones started the second half with a 17-yard run for a first down. He ran for five on the next play. Addison’s four-yard reception on second down set up third-and-one.
Kevin O’Connell loves to hunt explosive plays. His unique play design is as much of an asset as his ability to coach quarterbacks. O’Connell uses the run to set up the pass. Condense the defense, then let it rip.
Receivers also typically get one-on-one matchups on third-and-one, like the one Jefferson got on Humphrey, because teams want to concentrate players on the line of scrimmage to stop the run.
“Two good runs in a row,” said O’Connell, explaining his logic on third-and-one. “And then we took the shot there versus Cover 0 on the third-and-one, knowing that we felt pretty good about getting it on the fourth-and-one if that ball hits the earth.”
Cover 0 is man coverage with no deep help. The corners line up on the receivers with no safety help over the top. Teams typically bracket Jefferson, meaning they stick a safety downfield from him while the corner trails him to create double-coverage.
Jefferson burns most players who try to cover him one-on-one. However, Humphrey, 29, is a veteran corner, and he appeared to be downfield of Jefferson. We’ll never know, because Jefferson slipped on the play.
“Zero coverage, one-on-one, and I have the greatest receiver in the world,” McCarthy explained, “So, I don’t care who it is out there, I’m going to give him a chance.
“I didn’t see him fall,” he added. “But 10 out of 10 times, I’m going to give him a shot.”
According to ESPN’s metrics, the Ravens went from a 49.5% chance to win before Humphey’s pick to a 58.6% chance after. Their odds of winning only increased from there.
We can play the what-if game. What if Myles Price doesn’t fumble the ensuing kickoff after Baltimore takes a 12-10 lead? What if Adam Thielen doesn’t get called for a controversial block in the back on that turnover on downs? Didn’t the Vikings still have an opportunity to win it at the end?
They did, but the odds continued to decrease as the game progressed. The Vikings had a grip on it, and Baltimore started to wrestle it from them after the pick.
Now, they’re starting to lose control of the season. Lose against the Chicago Bears at home, and they have to beat the Green Bay Packers and the Seattle Seahawks on the road to get back to .500. Beat the Bears, and they still need to split the Green Bay and Seattle road games to get to .500 before facing the Washington Commanders, Dallas Cowboys, and New York Giants.
You can probably see O’Connell’s logic in throwing on third-and-one. Still, he had the running game going, and he has a first-year quarterback under center. In that moment, running the ball felt like the best way to maintain control of a tight game in a season where there’s little margin for error.
