The Minnesota Twins entered the 2025 season with some meaningful uncertainty. Ownership was trying to sell the team, they didn’t spend much on the roster, and doubts about core members of the lineup stuck in the minds of Twins fans all winter. However, fans and analysts were most confident in the team’s starting pitching rotation. Minnesota’s rotation had a 3.40 ERA through the first 61 games, ranking in the top 5 in baseball.
A unit that featured a staff ace in Pablo López at the top, along with rising pitching prospects like David Festa and Zebby Matthews, is intriguing. However, the staff’s steady, productive core made it truly strong.
Bailey Ober, Joe Ryan, and Chris Paddack gave Minnesota three productive veterans. While Ryan and Paddack have occasionally been inconsistent, Ober has developed into the steady presence the Twins can rely on every time he takes the mound. He has a 3.94 career ERA and an 8.92 K/9. Last year, he pitched a career-high 178.2 innings.
June has been a month to forget in Twins Territory. The team has a 7-16 record this month, which started when they lost López to a shoulder injury on June 3. They have only won three games since he went on the injured list.
However, more concerning than the losses is why teams are outscoring them. Since June 4, Minnesota’s starting rotation has been the worst in baseball. Its starters have a 6.78 ERA, an entire run worse than the Colorado Rockies, who have the second-worst starters’ ERA. Everyone in the rotation has been less productive.
Still, none has been more jarring than what’s happened to Ober in recent weeks.
Despite allowing 8 runs in his first start of the season, Ober accrued a 3.48 ERA, a 3.71 FIP, and an 89.9 MPH average exit velocity in 62 innings (12 starts). Like the entire team, Ober has been off this month. He has an 8.51 ERA and a 7.97 FIP with a 90 MPH average exit velocity in 24.1 innings over 4 starts, an alarming trend for one of the team’s most consistent pitchers over the last three seasons.
There’s a path for Ober to get back on track. It all starts with his fastball, his best pitch, which has a +5 run value per Baseball Savant. However, his lack of success with secondary pitches has held him back.
Ober must prioritize fixing his changeup, which has a 0 run value this season. That pitch had a +8 run value in 2023 and a +16 run value in 2024. Ober’s 4-seamer and changeup are his only positive pitches this season. Getting that changeup back up to his career averages will be a big boost to complement his fastball.
Getting his changeup and other secondary pitches back into form will impact his pitch locations. Despite his size, the 6’9”, 260 lbs. Ober doesn’t overpower opposing hitters. Instead, he manipulates his arm extension, which gives hitters less time to read his pitches.
Even though he’s had trouble with his command this year, his 5.6 percent walk rate is right around his 5.4 percent career average. However, hitters have teed off on his poor offerings this year.
Ober always pounds the strike zone with a 49.9 percent career zone rating. His command issues have partially bumped up his strikes to a 52.8 percent zone rate in 2025, but that can result in hard-hit balls. Pitchers who pound the zone need to find swing and misses. Ober’s 24.9 percent whiff rate is the worst in his career since his rookie season in 2021 and well below his 27.4 career average. His 8.1 percent meatball rate (an easy-to-hit pitch that comes right down the middle of the plate) and 32.9 percent chase rate are also as alarming as his 2021 season.
Hitters have taken advantage of his offerings that catch too much of the strike zone. Ober had a 7.9 percent barrel rate in April and May. However, he has an alarming 16.3 percent in June. As a result, he’s giving up home runs.
Ober allowed 7 home runs in his first 12 starts of the season. However, opponents have hit 10 home runs off him in his four June starts. Attacking the zone will always lead to a higher number of home runs compared to other pitchers. However, mitigating that power surge from opposing lineups will be crucial to regaining his career production.
Part of what makes a pitcher like Ober stay productive in the major leagues is their ability to power through rough patches of a season. Fortunately, Ober has found ways out of rough stretches before.
In 10 starts from July 1 to August 31, 2023, Ober had a 4.58 ERA and allowed 11 home runs. However, when the Twins needed to lock in down the stretch that season, Ober delivered. Ober recorded a 2.08 ERA and 3 home runs over his final four starts of the season to help the Twins win the AL Central.
Minnesota’s starting rotation has gone from the team’s biggest strength to its most concerning shortfall. Once a top-5 starting rotation, the unit ranks as the worst staff in June. It takes the team out of games before their lineup can get going.
It takes more than just one pitcher to break out of a June swoon. Still, Bailey Ober has gone from a consistent presence to a huge question mark on the mound at a time when the team needs him most. It starts with Ober fine-tuning his locations and re-finding his changeup, which should limit his home runs again. One starting pitcher isn’t going to end their slump. However, the Twins likely expected Ober to produce like a top-of-the-rotation pitcher to compete this season.
Ober has bounced back before, but the Twins need consistency on the mound immediately to save their sinking 2025 season.
