Like last season, the Minnesota Twins are hoping to use another strong May to overcome a slow start to the season.
Last year, the Twins started 7-13 before a 12-game win streak put them back in the AL Central race. After another 7-13 start in 2025, the Twins have put together an 11-7 stretch and are now 18-20 on the season. That included a series sweep over the Baltimore Orioles to extend Minnesota’s winning streak to 5 games.
It’s a much different tone than a week ago, after losing three of four in a road series against the Cleveland Guardians.
It’s brought life back into a team whose playoff hopes looked to be over before school let out for the summer. Hopes at Target Field and the team’s playoff chances are rising. According to FanGraphs, the Twins have a 42.6 percent chance of reaching the postseason in 2025. While it’s a modest figure, it is the first time the number has been above 40 percent since April 28.
Offensive woes have hurt the Twins the most so far this season. Minnesota’s 147 runs scored coming into Thursday’s game were ranked 18th in baseball. Now the Twins’ 72 runs scored since April 22 are top-9 in the league. It’s been a team effort to improve the lineup’s production. But Byron Buxton has been the driving force behind the team’s success.
Minnesota’s center fielder has entered a heater, and the rest of the Twins lineup is riding that momentum. Over Buxton’s last 24 games, he has slashed .306/.333/.622 with 8 home runs and 21 RBI for a 166 wRC+. His 91.4 MPH average exit velocity is well above his 90.5 MPH career and 88.5 MPH league average exit velocities. A 16.7 percent barrel rate highlights that Buxton is squaring up the baseball at a level he hasn’t produced since 2021.
Buxton’s offensive firepower has helped the Twins win 11 of their last 16 games and keep the team’s winning streak intact. Over the last 16 games, Buxton leads the Twins with 5 home runs, 15 RBI, 10 runs scored, and a .632 slugging percentage. Buxton’s numbers are reminiscent of his 2022 season, which earned him a trip to his first-ever All-Star Game.
However, Buxton will have to work on his swing discipline to continue this high-level production at the plate. His 32.6 percent strikeout clip is his highest since his 35.6 percent clip in 2016.
He also needs to create more walks. Buxton’s 3.5 percent walk rate is the lowest for him since 2018. He has always been a high-strikeout and low-walk hitter. Buxton has traded off that for an ability to hammer pitchers when he can get a hold of them. However, he needs to keep those numbers at a more manageable clip to avoid the big lows in his production.
There have been better stretches for Buxton in his career offensively. However, he’s producing in more ways than with his bat. He is a perfect 5-5 in stolen bases this season. And his 30.2 ft./sec sprint speed is tied with Bobby Witt Jr. for the fastest in all of baseball, even at age 31.
Buxton’s elite speed helps him on the bases and in the field. According to Baseball Savant, his 3 outs above average have him in the 93rd percentile of defenders. Buxton flashing the leather helped the Twins earn that sweep against the Baltimore Orioles, partly by gunning down a runner trying to score from second base in Thursday’s game.
His heater won’t last forever. Buxton can be a streaky hitter, and injury concerns will always be an issue. The Twins can’t and shouldn’t expect him to carry the offense the whole season.
Fortunately for the Twins, several other hitters have produced over the last 16 games. Harrison Bader’s .342 batting average in this span, and Trevor Larnach’s 3 home runs and 11 RBI are only behind Buxton in production. Improved play at the plate from Brooks Lee, Ryan Jeffers, and Carlos Correa also helps the offense. Reserve utility man Jonah Bride is the only Twins player to produce negative fWAR in this stretch who’s still on the 26-man roster.
Even a little more offense is enough for the Twins’ pitching staff to work with. Minnesota’s pitchers have put together a top-8 3.48 team ERA this season. Starting pitching has anchored the unit with a 3.46 ERA from the rotation, which is 7th-best in the league. Compare that to a Twins lineup that averages 3.97 runs/game, 20th in MLB and well below the 4.34 runs/game league average. That means the Twins can continue to consistently win games, even with a lineup that hovers around the league average in runs scored.
Off the back of sweeping the O’s, the Twins in the weeks ahead have an advantageous schedule. A series with the 24-14 San Francisco Giants at Target Field awaits. Then, they’ll face the Orioles again in Baltimore. Then it’s a three-game weekend series on the road against the Milwaukee Brewers before returning for a six-game homestand against the Cleveland Guardians and the Kansas City Royals, the two closest teams to the Twins in the AL Central standings.
Success over the next few weeks could put the Twins back on the level of their divisional foes.
Minnesota’s 11 wins in their last 16 games are getting the fan base to buy back into a season that felt lost. Buxton’s remaining on his dominant stretch and continuing more offensive production around him will give the pitching staff enough support more often than not. The Twins still have plenty of work to do to be atop the AL Central again. However, they are building a strong case to climb up in the standings.
