Pitching was the Minnesota Twins’ strength two years ago.
Minnesota’s pitchers finished 2023 with a league-best 25.9 percent strikeout rate and were top five with a 3.87 team ERA. The starting pitching staff powered that unit staff. The Twins’ starters recorded a 3.82 ERA and 26.3 percent strikeout rate, which were both the best in the league. Meanwhile, their 895 innings pitched by starting pitchers was the fourth-highest in the league. That 2023 rotation had a good mix of star power and depth.
Pablo López emerged as an ace and earned his first All-Star nod. Sonny Gray was also an All-Star while receiving Cy Young and MVP votes. Joe Ryan had a 3.70 ERA in his first 18 starts that season. Kenta Maeda and Tyler Mahle established a veteran baseline in the rotation. Bailey Ober had his breakout season. Rounding out the starting rotation, Louis Varland recorded his career-best 25.1 percent strikeout rate in 10 starts and 17 total appearances.
However, the group took a step back with a 4.36 ERA among starting pitchers, 22nd in baseball. López had a 4.02 ERA last year. Chris Paddack and Ryan’s injuries tested the depth, and Simeon Woods Richardson, David Festa, and Zebby Matthews logged a combined 235.2 innings over 51 starts. As a result, the rotation had a 5.03 ERA in the final 38 games of the season. But even with all of the same faces from 2024, Minnesota’s starting rotation has a chance to live up to the 2023 staff.
López is still anchoring this Twins rotation. Even if 2024 was a down year compared to 2023, he’s an experienced top-of-the-rotation arm with elite swing-and-miss ability. His 198 strikeouts and a 25.6 percent strikeout rate in 2024 were still well above the 22 percent league average. His 3.36 xFIP and a safe 87.9 MPH average exit velocity highlight that he got unlucky in 2024. That mainly comes from a career-worst 26 home runs allowed last year.
He’s got the makeup of an ace, and Rocco Baldelli has locked him in as the Opening Day starter. It’s unrealistic to assume he will automatically return to his 119 ERA+ 2023 season. Instead, it’s safer to assume he’s closer to that than his 102 ERA+ 2024 form.
Ober has a prime opportunity to take over Sonny Gray’s old role. Gray kept the ball in the yard, with only eight home runs allowed in 2023, while Ober surrendered 27 last season.
It may be hard to believe, considering their 11-inch height difference, but Ober and Gray are similar pitchers if you remove Gray’s veteran pedigree. Their pitch selection is aligned: fastball, cutter, slider, and curveball. Gray and Ober are also above average in creating strikeouts while keeping runners off the basepaths.
Gray had a 3.33 K/BB ratio two years ago, while Ober posted a slightly better 4.44 K/BB ratio in 2024. Ober recorded a career-best 1.00 WHIP, similar to Gray’s 1.15 WHIP in his last season with the Twins. It would be unfair to assume Ober can be a Cy Young runner-up. Still, if you squint, they are not as far off as a casual fan would assume.
Two years ago, Minnesota had veteran depth in their rotation. Maeda, Mahle, and Dallas Keuchel weren’t that productive. However, they provided a veteran floor in every start. Maeda and Mahle weren’t headliners in 2023. The former was coming off Tommy John surgery, while the latter needed the season-ending surgery five starts in.
Ryan and Paddack have a chance to be a much better veteran baseline than their 2023 counterparts. Mahle and Maeda were Minnesota’s No. 4 and No. 5 starters and would have been higher in the rotation order on other teams. Ryan’s 3.92 career ERA would make him a borderline top starter on lesser rotations.
Paddack slots in as a No. 4 starter on a deep unit. He missed most of 2022 and 2023 with Tommy John surgery, pitching in only 17 games last season with a right forearm strain. However, the Twins can be careful with Paddack’s workload in a story rotation. In 2023, Maeda came off Tommy John surgery and only pitched 5.1 innings per start. Paddack averaged 5.2 innings per start in a similar situation last season.
Woods Richardson, Matthews, and Festa are competing in camp for the fifth rotation spot. Woods Richardson is the frontrunner to be the No. 5 starter because he has the most big-league experience. He’s in a similar spot to Ober, who had a 3.21 ERA in 11 starts in 2022 before breaking out in 2023.
Matthews and Festa can step into Varland’s role from last year. Varland had a 4.63 ERA over 17 appearances and 10 starts. The Twins will give Matthews and Festa opportunities if needed. However, starting in St. Paul allows them to develop in Triple-A instead of starting in the majors immediately. Minnesota likely only expects them to make a few starts if starters get hurt or they send them down.
Will the Twins rotation this season be as good as it was two years ago? Probably not. This year’s rotation would have to be top-5 in ERA, innings, and strikeouts.
The star power of López and Gray that season made it hard to pass. But the 2025 Twins’ starting pitching has a chance to dominate because they’re a much deeper unit.
As good as Minnesota’s pitching was a couple of years ago, the back end of the rotation was concerning at times. Varland, Maeda, and Keuchel were inconsistent throughout the year. The Twins’ pitchers are less experienced than they were two years ago. However, what this year’s unit lacks in experience, they make up for in upside. Andrew Morris, Marco Raya, and other top pitching prospects could fill spots in the rotation later this year.
Two years ago, the Minnesota Twins won the AL Central and a playoff series because of their highly effective pitching staff. While it may not be an exact comparison, this year’s team can follow in the footsteps of the 2023 team. The overall talent pool and potential could be much deeper than the 2023 season, but the high-end talent might not be as high.
The Twins have a starting rotation that should excite fans this year.
