The Minnesota Twins are about to have the global top prospect for the next few cycles. While Walker Jenkins finds himself in the No. 3 ranking in the latest MLB Pipeline list that was released on Friday, he’s likely to take over the top spot in short order based on his eyebrow-raising talent at such a young age, as well as the likely graduations from most of the other top names. That’s exciting for a few reasons, one of which is that this isn’t uncharted territory for the organization.
The last two guys to accomplish that feat became franchise cornerstones for years. Joe Mauer was the top-rated prospect heading into the 2005 season, and Byron Buxton accomplished the feat in two consecutive years, nabbing the top spot heading into the 2014 and 2015 seasons.
While Jenkins’ development will be a must-watch storyline for Twins fans, he isn’t quite the top name heading into this campaign.
At the moment, newly minted Los Angeles Dodgers pitcher Roki Sasaki is pegged as the top youngster. However, he will almost certainly head directly to their big league rotation. That should move him out of prospect status well before the midseason re-rankings. On the other hand, Jenkins will likely start the 2025 campaign at High-A or possibly Double-A, where he finished last season. Barring either a meteoric rise for the 20-year-old or an utter catastrophe that wipes out about 15 outfielders ahead of him on the depth chart, Jenkins will still be in the minor leagues come July.
That means he will be a heavy favorite to take that top spot on the global ranking. The same can also be said for next year’s pre-season list. And if that isn’t the case due to an unlikely graduation to the big leagues in 2025, I have to imagine it would be a good thing. It would mean a generational prospect forced the team’s hand well before they expected him to become a factor.
Ask the Washington Nationals if they regretted calling up Bryce Harper as a 19-year-old or the Atlanta Braves if they shed a tear when they first promoted Ronald Acuna Jr.
Indeed, there is plenty to be excited about when talking about Minnesota’s first-round draft pick from 2023. Just look at his MLB Pipeline profile from this week.
Jenkins has every chance to be a plus hitter with plus power in time. He turns around velocity with a smooth left-handed swing, recognizes spin well and can hit the ball a long way to all fields. He doesn’t swing and miss much and draws walks, making consistent hard contact. Once he literally got his legs under him following his injuries, the Twins saw what he could do with a .303/.404/.494 line in July and August. There’s plenty more power for him to get to in games as he gets more reps.
Jenkins had a solid 2024 season on paper, combining for a .282/.394/.439 (.833 OPS) across four minor league levels. That slash line might come across as good-not-great, but there’s a lot of nuance behind that performance.
First, as stated in the scouting report, Jenkins is still at the age where his body is growing into his lofty frame, meaning in-game power is still following behind most of his other tools. So, looking at some of the numbers under the hood might make more sense to get a fuller sense of where he’s at in his development. To that effect, the 19-year-old had more walks than strikeouts on the year (15.2% walk rate, 12.8% strikeout rate), and both figures would be very promising.
Jenkins was also stellar when compared to his competition. His performance was roughly 39% better than the league average. Speaking of competition, Jenkins stood out amongst players considerably older than him. When rehabbing a hamstring injury with the rookie ball team, he was just under the average age of players at that level. Then, Jenkins was almost two years younger than average at Low-A, followed by three years younger than average at High-A, culminating with a whopping five-year age difference between him and the rest of the league in his brief cameo at Double-A Wichita.
His age is important when deciphering his performance from last season. Still, it’s also vital to Jenkins’ future as a potential global top prospect because some other candidates taking that throne are far closer to their big league promotion. Guys like Sasaki and Dylan Crews of the Washington Nationals will likely start the season in the major leagues. Roman Anthony and Marcelo Mayer of the Boston Red Sox will begin their year at Triple-A and are one injury to the big league roster away from making their debuts.
So clearly, Jenkins has some time to establish himself as the top prospect in the game. And if he doesn’t, Twins fans should be just as excited about what that could mean for the generational talent.
