The Minnesota Twins have struggled to get runners across the plate in their first five games this year. They’ve only scored 14 runs through the first stretch of games, which hasn’t been good enough for a team hoping to erase memories of the 12-27 stretch in their last 39 games of the season last year when they missed the playoffs for the third time in the last four seasons.
The hitters alone aren’t culpable. There have been some concerning blowup starts in the early season, too. Bailey Ober allowed 8 earned runs in 2.2 innings in his last start. Chris Paddack pitched 3.1 innings Monday afternoon and allowed 9 earned runs to the Chicago White Sox. However, Minnesota’s lineup looks stronger with the pitching staff. The offense will need to contribute enough to compensate for the rotation.
It’s harsh to overly scrutinize this stretch because it’s such a small sample size this early in the season. However, considering Minesota’s collapse last year, an offseason with more news on ownership searches than the roster, and three teams in the AL Central coming off playoff appearances, a slow start shouldn’t crush any hope of a good 2025 season. Still, it would dissipate any optimism from a fan base that needs anything to rally behind. Results are going to matter.
Looking into Minnesota’s lack of offensive production, has it been as unproductive as it seems or more unlucky?
Twins hitters have 14 runs through the first five games and are 27th in all of baseball. Their .174 team batting average and 53 wRC+ (100 is league average) also rank 27th. Their -0.5 offensive fWAR is 28th in the league, and so is their .520 team OPS. A unit that prides itself on the power it can produce has only three home runs that rank 24th in baseball. It hasn’t been a fun ride.
Injuries haven’t helped matters. Royce Lewis and Brooks Lee are starting the year on the injured list, which means the team is without two of their potential starters to begin the 2025 campaign. Jose Miranda, Edouard Julien, Willi Castro, and Mickey Gasper are all taking turns filling in at their positions to mixed results. Even without Lewis and Lee, the Twins still have a healthy Byron Buxton and Carlos Correa on the roster. That should be enough high-end offensive production to be a top-10 offense in the league.
Remember, the Twins have also undergone a slight shift in hitting philosophy. They let hitting coach David Popkins go and brought back Matt Borgschulte as their lead hitting coach. It’s too early to understand his impact on the Twins. We don’t know if his methods will lead to fewer strikeouts and more home runs. It will take time to decipher that, but Minnesota’s early hole with the 1-4 start doesn’t give them much room for error.
Despite the lack of actual on-field results, the Twins can take some silver linings away from their 1-4 start that indicates a little flukiness to their early-season woes. Minnesota is finding a way to make good contact. Minnesota’s 89.2 MPH average exit velocity ranks 18th in baseball and is just above the 88.5 MPH league average. A 39.3 percent hard-hit rate is 15 in MLB.
Minnesota’s inability to deliver in the clutch hurt them in 2024. The Twins only produced a .732 OPS (18th in MLB) with runners in scoring position and a 105 wRC+ with RISP (19th in MLB) last year. Minnesota’s 18.1 percent soft contact rate was the fifth-worst in the majors.
However, they had a slight turnaround this year. Their .736 OPS with RISP is 15th in the league. Meanwhile, Minnesota’s 115 wRC+ (13th in MLB) with RISP in 2025, in a small sample, has been promising. The same goes for their 0.42 clutch score on FanGraphs, which is top-5 in 2025. The Twins don’t have to cash in on every opportunity, but they can’t consistently strand runners on base in big spots.
Carlos Correa has not recorded his first hit of the 2025 season through the first five games. The 2024 All-Star has a -0.3 fWAR so far this season. However, like with the Twins, his underlying numbers show he’s been more unlucky than unproductive. Despite not having a hit, he has a 93 MPH average exit velocity, well above his 90 MPH career average. He’s only recorded three strikeouts on the year and is hitting the ball hard. A -0.4 launch angle suggests that he’ll be just fine once he finds a way to elevate his contact.
The same goes for Ty France. Minnesota’s new first baseman has a .167/.250/.167 slashline with a -0.2 WAR. Given some of his underlying numbers, his process should yield results. A 92.1 MPH exit velocity and a 42.9 percent hard-hit rate are positive indicators. While his batting average is below .200, he has a .326 weighted batting average (xBA). Correa and France’s processes will hopefully yield more production soon. However, in the meantime, the Twins still must find a way to get results.
Minnesota’s offense has been unlucky at the start of the season. They should be scoring more runs than they have. Still, regardless of underlying stats, the team must deliver on the field to avoid falling behind quickly. The underlying numbers don’t suggest this team is hitting like a top-5 offense. However, suppose the Twins can find a way to get to the middle of the league instead of the bottom in offensive production in the early season. Then, the pitching staff and reinforcements in Lewis and Lee will be more than enough to consistently stack wins on top of each other.
The Twins haven’t looked sharp in their first handful of games of the 2025 season. A 1-4 start won’t end their season, but Minnesota has to find a way to stabilize early. By finding any kind of rhythm, their offense can pull the Twins out of the early deficit and erase a slow start.
