Trevor Larnach’s career with the Minnesota Twins has always been challenging to gauge.
Minnesota drafted Larnach 20th overall out of Oregon State in 2018, where he led the Beavers to a College World Series championship. Larnach made the All-Tournament team with four other Oregon State alums, including future Baltimore Orioles star Adley Rutschman.
Over his minor league career, Larnach totaled a .297 batting average and an .841 OPS with a 141 OPS+ over 183 games of minor league baseball at all levels before making his big-league debut on May 8, 2021. After his first few years in the Twins’ farm system, MLB.com made Larnach Minnesota’s No. 3 prospect in 2021.
Larnach joined Alex Kirilloff (No. 2) and Royce Lewis (No. 1) as bats who looked like they’d carry the Twins’ lineup into the 2020s.
Larnach bounced back from a slow 2023 season
However, every first-round draft pick and top prospect in a team’s farm system must develop at their own pace while meeting first-round expectations. Could Larnach ever reach the heights the Twins hoped when they drafted him? Last season, combined with the first third of the 2025 season, has been a back-and-forth game of yes, but not exactly.
When the 2023 season ended, there were still more questions than answers about Larnach’s role in Minnesota. Larnach was producing a .222/.315/.385 slash line during his first three combined seasons in the big leagues with 20 home runs, 86 RBI, and a 96 wRC+ (100 is league average) in 188 combined games from 2021-23 seasons.
It wasn’t a bad start to a big-league career, but the fanbase has wanted more from someone who looked like a core player in the minors. Trips between Minneapolis and St. Paul have been constant for Larnach in the early years of his career. However, he owns a .822 OPS in Triple-A. His next step is consistency in the majors.
Minnesota’s patience with Larnach has paid off
The Twins have been patient with Larnach through his first five big-league seasons. That patience has been rewarded since the start of the 2024 season. Larnach’s production has jumped in the last two years. He has a .261/.334/.432 with 24 home runs, 82 RBI, with a 118 wRC+ over 171 games between 2024 and 2025.
Larnach went from someone lost among Minnesota’s glut of left-handed hitting corner outfielders to becoming the team’s primary designated hitter and left fielder against right-handed pitching. Larnach has a .757 OPS with a 115 wRC+ this season.
He’s controlling the strike zone
Larnach’s biggest area of improvement has been limiting strikeouts. From 2021 to 2023, Larnach posted a 33.6 percent strikeout rate and an 11 percent walk rate. A 33.7 percent career whiff rate is well above the 25 percent league average. Larnach’s big swing generated nice power numbers, but at the cost of striking out frequently.
Larnach had command of the strike zone in college, with a 21.5 percent strikeout rate in Corvallis. The 603 at-bats from his first three big league seasons helped Larnach better understand facing major league pitchers. Since the start of the 2024 campaign, Larnach’s strikeout rate has dropped to 22.1 percent, a touch better than the 22.2 percent league average.
For some hitters, generating more contact can create its own issues. Contact for the sake of contact isn’t a meaningful improvement if a hitter also loses their ability to make hard contact.
Larnach’s 91.6 MPH average exit velocity in 2024 is a step up from his 90.9 MPH career average and the 88.5 league average exit velocity. Also, despite playing fewer games over those periods, he’s hit more home runs in the last two seasons (24) than the previous three (20).
Can Larnach reach another level?
Larnach made adjustments and went from being a below-average player to a slightly above-average major league hitter. Some fans could look at that and be optimistic that another step up from Larnach could get him to the ceiling he once had as a minor leaguer.
Larnach has been unable to take that big leap partly because of his injuries throughout his career. Groin, hamstring, core, and turf toe have kept him from getting consistent playing time on the field and have partially led to some of those low production numbers. Finding a way to stay healthy will help Larnach stay right and continue to produce at a more impactful pace.
Improving strikeout numbers, exit velocity, and health will benefit Larnach. However, he may have reached his ceiling. Realistically, his strikeout numbers will probably hover around league average. His exit velocity will likely stay around his career average, and we don’t know if he’ll stay healthy.
Above all else, Larnach is 28 and entering his prime seasons. Larnach needs to make these jumps over the next couple of years while he’s in that peak performance timeline to become that player. He is getting better entering these crucial seasons, but still needs to prove he has another level there.
Larnach has fulfilled most of his first-round promise
Is Larnach a bust? Not even close. Larnach is now in his second season of providing 100-plus wRC+ production. It’s not uncommon for first-round picks to never reach the majors, let alone provide league-average value for the team that drafted them. Larnach may never reach the ceiling he once had in the minors to be a core member of the Twins. Still, he has proven to be a competent hitter who can drive offense in the lineup.
Given his draft status and college pedigree, fans have been waiting for Larnach to take a leap and become a core franchise player. While he has closed the gap between his production and expectations, it’s increasingly unlikely the two will ever meet. Despite that reality, Larnach can still play an important role, platooning in the corner outfield spots and be a key part of this year’s team.
