Jhoan Duran has been a lot better than people seem to realize.
With all of the chatter surrounding his decreased velocity throughout the last year, it was expected that his production might regress as quickly as the heat on his fastball, which has been his best offering since debuting with the club in 2022. However, instead of adhering to his reputation as a one-trick pony, he’s showing the Minnesota Twins that he can be a horse at the end of their bullpen.
Duran’s ability to hit triple digits with his fastball has been a welcome and absolutely necessary development for a Twins club that rarely possessed that velocity at any point in their franchise’s existence. It was new, exciting, and a must-see phenomenon in his rookie season. But as time wore on, that tippy-top velocity wore down.
Still, I tend to roll my eyes at how much coverage his fastball velocity attracts.
Some people make it out to seem like Duran has become some soft-tossing nibbler who throws nothing but slop. His fastball dropped from an absurd average of 101.8 MPH in 2023 to 100.5 MPH last year. I understand why folks would say they smelled smoke without seeing the flames with this development. Still, they’ve been missing out on a premier arm in the peak of his career because the velocity is all they could see. They couldn’t see through the smoke, if you will.
But the premier fastball is just half of what makes Duran a standout reliever. That heater is not only a top-notch offering because of its raw velocity, but also because it makes his offerings better.
Look at his splinker and how it has complemented his fastball perfectly. It felt like last year’s dip in velocity meant Duran had to figure out the art of pitching if he wanted to find success, leading him to a clearer game plan with that off-speed. And his success with that pitch has kept him productive through the changes of his primary fastball offering. He had success with the splinker last year. His opponents hit .238 against it with a .363 slugging percentage.
In an admittedly small sample this year, the splinker has become Duran’s best weapon. His opponents are hitting just .071 with zero extra-base hits against it. I think he’s learned to use this weapon in a way that better plays off his fastball. It’s reflected in its usage. He’s throwing it four percent more this year, and it’s easy to see why. The whiff rate on that pitch has skyrocketed to 36.4%, its highest mark in his career.
That success has translated to a rejuvenation for Minnesota’s closer. Not only is he the best reliever in his team’s bullpen, but Duran should be considered one of the best arms in the American League in this young season.
Here are some of the many leaderboards that the electric righty finds himself on, according to Inside Edge:
- His 70% groundball rate is the 6th-highest in baseball among qualified relievers.
- Opponents’ miss rate of 44% with runners in scoring position is the fifth-highest in the American League.
- Opponents are hitting just .043 against Duran with two strikes, 7th-best in the league.
The list goes on and on, but these three help demonstrate his effectiveness in some vitally clutch areas. He gets groundballs when needed, especially in late-and-close situations with runners on base. In those same situations, he’s also shown he can get misses with aplomb when he needs to get himself out of a jam. And he’s been among the best in the game when limiting damage once the batter has their back against the wall with two strikes, which has been extremely encouraging.
So, is it understandable that so much of the focus has gone to Duran’s decreased velocity on his fastball last year? Sure, but it’s hard to argue that it has affected his bottom line much, if at all, because he’s still averaging around 100.5 MPH on the heater. Still, maybe his ability to use his other offerings, including that lethal splinker, means he’s still the top dog in his own ‘pen, and he just might have one of the biggest barks in the league altogether.
