Joe Ryan is pitching like an All-Star in 2025. What else is new?
Ryan pitches like an All-Star every season… for a while. Last year, Ryan mowed down all comers through the end of June, allowing a 3.21 ERA and striking out 110 batters in 103.2 innings. Through June 22, 2023, Ryan allowed two or fewer earned runs in nine of his 15 outings, with a 2.98 ERA on the whole. His first 15 starts in 2022 were eerily similar, with a 2.89 ERA through July 23.
2025 might be his best first half yet. Ryan hasn’t failed to get through five innings in any of his 14 starts. He’s allowed two or fewer earned runs in 10 of those starts. His 5.24 strikeout-to-walk ratio ranks ninth out of 74 qualifying pitchers. His 2.93 ERA sits 21st among that same group, a more-than-respectable placing.
It’s just those darned second halves. Last season saw Ryan scuffle to a 4.88 ERA in six starts before getting shut down with a triceps injury. He was more durable down the stretch in 2023… but at what cost? His 6.00 ERA from June 16 on was downright ghastly. Only his 2022 second-half was somewhat palatable, with an ugly 4.80 ERA fueled by four rough starts, including a 10-spot against the San Diego Padres.
Historically speaking, though, Ryan’s expiration date is coming, and it’s coming fast. And that’s awful news for a Minnesota Twins rotation that can’t afford Ryan’s typical second-half dip.
Pablo Lopez‘s second injury of the season left Ryan as the de facto ace of the rotation. That same rotation falling apart all around them has made Ryan their lone stabilizing force.
Top prospect Zebby Matthews is now out with injury, with no imminent return date in sight. Bailey Ober has melted down for 12 earned runs in his past two games, including allowing a career-high six walks, only the second time in his career he’s allowed more than three free passes. Chris Paddack just hit his first blow-up since the start of the season. Simeon Woods Richardson inspired some hope by one-hitting the Houston Astros for five innings on Sunday, but his 5.13 ERA still rates as ugly.
Suddenly, the team’s greatest strength is looking vulnerable. Ryan must continue to be on his game to keep the team’s playoff hopes afloat.
Whether he can is an open question.
Fighting history will be tough, especially since at 80.0 innings, Ryan is almost halfway to his career-high of 161.2. Sure, the days of the Innings Eater are passing us by. Still, Ryan hasn’t made 30 starts in a season, which the Twins are now clearly depending on him to do. It’s also worth noting that Ryan’s groin injury in 2023 and shoulder injury in 2024 occurred in the first week of August. It could be a coincidence, or it could be a pattern.
However, the tricky part for Ryan is that he’s not just fighting history. He’s going to have to stave off regression in the second half. All of the “luck” stats have gone his way in 2025. His .237 BABIP is the fifth-lowest among the 74 qualified starters, and sits about 30 points below his .266 career mark. He’s stranding 80.6% of his baserunners, which is above his career 75% mark. Ryan’s 52.0% fly ball rate is about the same as it’s always been (50.3% career). However, his home run-to-fly ball ratio is at 9.7%, the second-lowest of his career, and two percent below his career rate.
Regression isn’t always written in stone, and nothing is stopping Ryan from continuing to sail through the season with some favorable headwinds. But despite his strong strikeout and walk rates, the underlying metrics suggest Ryan should be getting hit slightly harder, get slightly more punished on the bases, and see a few more balls leave the park.
In fairness to Ryan, the underlying numbers aren’t predicting anything dire. Fangraphs’ ZiPS model projects Ryan to have an ERA of 3.79 for the rest of the season, far from the high-fours second halves that he’s struggled with in the past. Ryan could fall back to earth and still have a full, strong season for the Twins.
Increasingly, though, Minnesota is going to need more than that. Unless the Twins plan on being active on the trade deadline market to bring in a strong starter at the deadline — which, given the last 18 months or so, will have to be seen to be believed — Minnesota will rely on Ryan to pick up Lopez’s slack.
Can Ryan both fight off a strong track record of second-hand slumps and the signs of regression that pepper his advanced stats? The answer to that question may well determine Minnesota’s fortunes this fall.
