Last week, fans were treated to the annual release of the Minnesota Twins’ ZiPS projections, a system of calculations and a forecast of sorts FanGraphs’ Dan Szymborski created.
These are always a fun exercise to leaf through. Not necessarily because you can expect precision, even though the accuracy is usually pretty strong as far as projections go. Instead, it’s because it’s a practice in riding the tide of the chronically mathematical aspect of being a baseball fan while not being completely sucked into its undertow of spreadsheets.
And this year’s edition had some pretty neat takeaways, which could either perplex or help explain the club’s lack of activity this winter.
Here are some key bullet points to keep in mind as it pertains to the crop of Twins pitchers:
Bullpen Breakouts
The Twins are currently projected to have the best bullpen in baseball next year, and they’ll be headlined by the three-headed monster (well, maybe two-and-a-half-headed monster) that is Jhoan Duran, Griffin Jax, and Brock Stewart when healthy. Each is projected to have an ERA of 3.00 or lower and a strikeout rate around the 30% mark, making them one of the American League’s most electric relief trios.
That’s quite interesting. However, the projected performances from two arms that have gone pretty overlooked in many conversations this offseason caught my attention.
Kody Funderburk is currently slated to be the most prominent lefty in the club’s bullpen, and ZiPS sees the hurler having a respectable campaign after an up-and-down 2024. He’s projected to toss 61 innings of 4.13 ERA ball with a solid 9.1 K/9. Regardless of if the Twins can reel in a more-established lefty to take the mantle of top southpaw, these underlying numbers for Fundy are a strong development for a bullpen that’s already expected to have some success.
Justin Topa, 34, is another name to watch. The Twins acquired Topa in the Jorge Polanco trade, but he missed all but the last week of the 2024 season due to nagging injuries. ZiPS has him pegged for a very strong 3.80 ERA across 46 innings pitched. While he isn’t projected to be some strikeout-heavy buzzsaw (just 7.6 K/9), it’s encouraging to see him staying healthy and effectively securing middle-leverage outs.
In recent years, we’ve seen other arms come into the Twins system and redefine themselves to much success. Maybe a healthy Topa can do just that.
Other Pitching Corps Rebounds
The much-ballyhooed debuts of some exciting rookie pitchers became a pretty big storyline in 2024. Still, the overall performance of the secondary depth in the club’s pitching corps left much to be desired. Yes, the top four of Pablo Lopez, Joe Ryan, Bailey Ober, and Simeon Woods Richardson had overall strong outcomes, save for a few lost months from Ryan and some late-season inconsistency from Lopez.
However, after that, the arms that were to step up and rise to the occasion when one of the big guns went down failed to do that. Namely, Louie Varland limped to a 7.61 ERA across 50 innings, which was pretty consequential for the club. He failed to repeat the electricity he had on display in 2023 and bottomed out as he tried to tinker with his mechanics at Triple-A.
But ZiPS gives the local kid a fresh start in 2025 and sees him rebounding to the tune of a 4.32 ERA across 127 innings pitched. I would probably take the under on innings pitched in that line because of the current depth chart should probably value his usage as a reliever more than as a starter. Some regression to the mean when it comes to his strikeout numbers and a more reasonable home runs allowed total (projected to have a 1.2 HR/9 in 2025 vs. 2.2 HR/9 in 2024) will certainly help.
Aside from Varland, Zebby Matthews could be in for a rebound at the big-league level. The young righty cruised through the minor leagues last year, starting the year at High-A and finishing as a regular in Minnesota’s rotation, but failed to show the same dominance once he got the call.
Matthews struggled, with a 6.69 ERA across nine starts and an uncharacteristic rise in home runs allowed. But he’s projected to make 24 starts, with a much healthier 4.05 ERA and a good-not-great 1.3 HR/9. Ideally, his 2025 campaign will be the fifth most important performance to the team’s rotation, but that projection would certainly be suitable as a back-end contributor.
