Matt Wallner became the talk of Twins camp last week. Some of it was his calm recollection of events when a car nearly collided with Edouard Julien, Jorge Alcala, and him in traffic last Monday. Still, the focus has been more on where he’s hitting in the Minnesota Twins lineup than his spring training numbers.
Wallner has been Minnesota’s leadoff hitter in all five spring training games he’s played. However, he’s gone 1-for-13 in the five games, with his lone hit being a two-run home run. Do these stats reflect how the season will play out for him? No. It’s unlikely but impossible that Wallner will have another cold start in 2025. Last year, he started 2-for-25 before the Twins sent him back down to Triple-A.
So, why would the Twins bat Wallner, a three true outcome power hitter who lacks a typical leadoff hitter’s speed and contact ability in the leadoff spot? Well, it’s become more common in baseball to lead off one of your best hitters to show opposing teams they mean business.
My old little league coach used to say that last term when he explained why he batted a teammate who was a three-true-outcome hitter leadoff instead of a hitter like myself who couldn’t hit for power, drew many walks, and stole bases. That experiment with my teammate hitting leadoff didn’t last long. More often than not, I recall going up to the plate with one out after he struck out.
Now, there’s a large gap in competition between 13-year-olds who haven’t seen a pitch thrown above 80 MPH and a major-league hitter who has seen their fair share of pitchers who can throw over 100. Still, there isn’t a long history of teams hitting a power hitter with high strikeout numbers leadoff, hoping they can provide a home run and put a team up 1-0.
Kyle Schwarber might be the best situational comparison to Wallner. Schwarber has been the Philadelphia Phillies’ everyday leadoff man since signing a four-year contract before the 2022 season. His power numbers in the leadoff spot have been great. He’s led the Phillies with 132 home runs and 302 RBI over the last three seasons.
However, his triple slash, strikeout, and walk rates have been consistent with what they’ve been for most of his career. Schwarber has had a .221/.344/.488 triple slash, averaging a 29.4% strikeout and 15.3% walk rate since joining the Phillies.
On the other hand, Wallner has a better triple slash than Schwarber (.251/.366/.500) in his first three MLB seasons but has done so in fewer plate appearances (580 to Schwarber’s 2,081). Schwarber has better strikeout-to-walk numbers, though. Wallner has a 34.5% strikeout rate and a 10% walk rate throughout his career. If he’s going to get on base as a leadoff man, it’ll more commonly be with a hit.
That’s eerily similar to Luis Arraez, Minnesota’s last true leadoff man three years ago. However, Wallner’s career walk rate is at least double that of Arraez’s 5.8% from 2022 to 2024. It’s a little more encouraging for Wallner’s case to be in the leadoff spot when the best contact hitter in baseball is accumulating a much lower walk rate.
Right now, the Wallner batting leadoff experiment is still just that. It’s hard to predict how this will play out for him and the Twins in April. Fortunately, the injury news out of camp has been limited to three of Minnesota’s top 10 prospects, which gives more time to deliberate on whether a pure power hitter belongs in the leadoff spot.
It’s worth trying out for a month in Spring Training. If things go well for Wallner in the leadoff spot, keeping him there until it becomes a problem isn’t the worst way for Rocco Baldelli to manage the lineup card. It could be a temporary holding place for Wallner until Edouard Julien returns to his rookie form. Or he could even be keeping it warm for Luke Keaschall, a prospect with the stronger makeup of a traditional leadoff hitter.
If the Twins commit to Wallner as their leadoff man, they may want to put a hitter in the eight- or nine-hole with an on-base percentage above the .309 American League average. Willi Castro (.331 OBP in 2024) could be a fit. That way, the second time Wallner comes up in a game, there’s at least a better chance of him doing damage with runners on base than a leadoff home run that only scores one run.
Wallner has a chip on his shoulder. He doesn’t want to start slow like last April. Therefore, he will show the teams that he means business every time he’s at the plate for the Twins this spring.
