Somewhere in the ether of time and space, there’s an alternate universe where Sonny Gray re-signed with the Minnesota Twins after their highly successful partnership concluded in 2023.
Instead, the club got to see their former ace in this season’s first game of the regular season. Neither side dominated. Gray went five solid innings, allowing two earned runs on four hits and two walks while striking out six. Meanwhile, the Twins mustered three runs on eight hits.
Still, imagine a world where Gray never departed in free agency. Instead, he lined up to start Minnesota’s second game of the season on Saturday.
It’s interesting to think about what that would have meant for Gray himself, but there would also be multiple ripples that would have stemmed from that one transaction.
Let’s start with how Sonny’s return could have impacted the Twins last season.
You’ve probably heard ad nauseam about how abysmal the team performed in the last six weeks of the season, dropping out of the playoff picture and out of the hearts of many Twins faithful. Let’s use August 18th as the turning point. That was the game where the Twins blew a four-run lead to the Texas Rangers, and all hell broke loose.
Minnesota’s starting rotation shouldn’t get the lion’s share of the blame for their freefall from that point on. Still, it’s clear that some of the arms holding down rotation spots at that point of the season were overmatched and would have benefited from some more time in the minor league oven.
For example, the Twins rushed Zebby Matthews (who I’m still very high on) to big-league action after dominating three levels in the minor leagues. In eight starts after the turning point, he had a 7.16 ERA, and the Twins lost all but two of those contests.
Compare Matthews’ performance to Gray’s in that span. Sonny had a 3.53 ERA in six starts after the turning point, riding the consistency under the hood that has made him an All-Star. He had a sterling 28.3% strikeout rate on top of just eight walks in 36 innings, and even the 83-79 Cardinals managed to win four of those games.
Imagine if that version of Gray had been around to perform admirably in some pivotal matchups in place of an outmatched rookie and to act as the stopper while his young Twins teammates flapped in the wind. The 2024 Twins were defined by the class of promising youngsters failing to take the reins when the veteran stars were either hurt or ineffective down the stretch. If that version of Gray were still in the clubhouse setting the standard, I think the club would’ve landed a few additional wins, propelling them to a postseason berth.
It’s interesting to think about how different this year’s club would have looked with Gray in the fold, especially if he had led them out of their rut. Assuming he would have required a multiyear deal similar in size and scope to his three-year, $75 million pact that he signed with the Cardinals, Gray would be in the second season of a multiyear deal.
That could mean the Twins would’ve been more amenable to a deal involving one of their valuable, younger arms over the off-season. They could have traded someone like Joe Ryan for a high-end young first baseman like Triston Casas of the Boston Red Sox. Maybe they would have shopped Bailey Ober for a catcher prospect with Ryan Jeffers and Christian Vázquez nearing their own free agency. How about a package of multiple top pitching prospects going to Baltimore for one of their enticing young (and most likely blond) superstar position prospects like Heston Kjerstad or Jackson Holliday?
It’s hard to say what the Twins could’ve done. Still, it’s easy to see that the rotation picture and the club would likely look quite different had the club ponied up big money to keep their All-Star starting pitcher.
Instead, Twins fans live in this timeline, with this club whose top decision makers let Gray walk. Time will tell if that ends up being a wise choice. However, based on the hypothetical of what could have been, it’s interesting to ponder as we wait for the hometown nine to find their footing after dropping the opener to their old friend.
