The seventh-seeded Green Bay Packers needed to go on the road and take down a second-seeded NFC East juggernaut to survive Wild Card weekend. They had to keep up with a prolific offensive attack and do it without explosive young wideout Christian Watson.
That was the conversation approximately one year ago. The Packers pulled off the upset with authority as Jordan Love emphatically introduced himself and his young team to the nation.
Green Bay’s position ahead of this year’s opening round is remarkably similar. They won more games than last year, but an ultra-competitive NFC North has landed them in the seventh seed again. They drew the Philadelphia Eagles at Lincoln Financial Field, a brutal environment compared to Dallas’ AT&T Stadium. After Watson suffered a torn ACL last week, the Packers will ask their receiving group to make up for his production again.
Enter Dontayvion Wicks. The second-year, former fifth-round pick out of Virginia started his NFL career hot. His surgical route-running and reliability earned him some ambitious comparisons to one of the best ever to wear the green and gold, Davante Adams. Most importantly, he stepped up in last year’s playoffs, catching a pivotal 20-yard touchdown off a beautiful feed from Love.
His ascent caught the attention of many sharp fantasy football and best-ball players throughout the offseason. Given the ability he flashed on tape, the theory was that he could emerge as the top wideout in a crowded room, albeit one that lacked and continues to lack a true alpha.
That theory didn’t come to fruition. The depth chart crunch has been one thing, with Romeo Doubs, Jayden Reed, Tucker Kraft, and Watson running most of the routes. However, Wicks’ production has also regressed when he’s on the field. In particular, he had a problem with drops like he experienced in college, which has returned to give him among the lowest completion percentage over expected scores among wide receivers.
In the games that key receivers have missed this season, Wicks has seen a significant uptick in snaps and target share, a trend likely to continue on Sunday. It has been far from the second-year leap many prophesied. Still, he has a clean slate and an opportunity to rise to the occasion in a do-or-die January contest (that hopefully leads to multiple contests).
As a whole, the Packers came into 2024 with heightened expectations. Their playoff run culminated in the divisional round, but they made enough noise to get on the national radar after pushing San Francisco to the brink on their home field. They have undoubtedly shown that forecasted growth, primarily by taking care of business against lowly and mediocre teams. That was an area of concern last year after they dropped important games to the likes of Tommy DeVito. However, Detroit’s ascension to juggernaut status and Minnesota’s shocking obstinance under Sam Darnold‘s leadership have lowered their stock dramatically heading into the postseason.
Drawing Jalen Hurts and the Eagles on the road in the first round is more than adequate punishment for an inability to execute and close against NFC teams with a better record than them. That flaw was encapsulated in the first week when the Packers traveled to Sao Paulo and dropped a close contest on a slippery field with the whole country watching.
On the other hand, being so close in so many difficult games gives Green Bay the upside of getting that evasive key win by executing in crunch time on Sunday. In the same way that the Kansas City Chiefs could get hit with a single blow of regression from the tightly contested, “black magic” victories with which they’ve escaped this year, the Packers could come out on top with a crucial play.
The passing game is the most frustrating facet of their downswing into the playoffs. It simply hasn’t been as potent or consistent as it has been all season. The upside of Love and the offense is clear — we can go as far back as Dallas a year ago. Losing Watson complicates that dynamic further. The key to establishing a two-dimensional offense against a very strong team on both sides of the ball will come down to consistent execution between Love and his receivers.
Doubs and Reed have been solid in their roles but have failed to assert themselves as anything more than role players. That sets the stage for Dontayvion Wicks, arguably the team’s best route runner. Wicks will likely be on the field in all three-receiver sets, and getting maximum production out of his role will be crucial if the Packers are to pull off a second-straight seventh-seed stunner.
