I mean, I think it’s back. There have been a couple of false alarms over the last 15 years or so, but the Chicago Bears haven’t been able to sustain anything in this one-sided rivalry, where the Green Bay Packers have gone 51-16 since Brett Favre took over.
When I was a kid, the all-time series was so one-sided, I didn’t think the Packers would ever have a chance to catch up. Now the Pack has a comfortable 12-game lead as the 211th edition looms Sunday afternoon at Lambeau.
It looks like this Bears team has a chance at some staying power, with good coaches (just ask Ben Johnson), a solid young roster, and a young QB who has a chance to partner with that clever play caller through his prime years.
I doubt even the most delusional Bears fan (and there are literally millions of them) could have predicted their team would be sitting atop the NFC heap as the calendar turns to December. They’ve done it mostly thanks to an ungodly amount of takeaways — 26 of them, leading to a plus-17 in turnover differential. Next best: three teams at plus nine.
There’s obviously some luck involved there. Then again, the great Al Harris coaches Chicago’s secondary, so you know he has a hand in their success. Whether it’s unheralded bench player Nahshon Wright stepping in at corner, grabbing eight takeaways and being named NFC Defensive Player of the Month, or the rejuvenated safety Kevin Byard, with six picks, the Bears are coming up with loose footballs. However, their secondary is making up for a defense that ranks near the bottom in every metric.
It was hard to take Chicago seriously a couple of weeks ago, when they were sitting at 8-3, with a negative season points differential and a bunch of wins against lousy quarterbacks. Their Black Friday beatdown of the Philadelphia Eagles opened a lot of eyes, especially their 281 yards on the ground against that vaunted front seven.
That will be the Pack’s first order of business on Sunday: remaining stout in run defense, even without Devonte Wyatt. Youngsters like Karl Brooks (returning from injury), Warren Brinson, Colby Wooden, and Nazir Stackhouse, along with newcomer Jordon Riley (poached off the New York Giants’ practice squad), will all have the opportunity to step in for Wyatt, who’s done for the season — a huge loss for Jeff Hafley’s defense.
Quay Walker‘s return will also be a welcome sight, though Isaiah McDuffie was terrific filling in the past two weeks. One concern is the status of slot corner Javon Bullard, who missed practice Thursday and Friday with an ankle injury. Matt LaFleur hasn’t ruled him out, but it seems likely Nate Hobbs is returning from his injury at the right time — though he’s not the weapon Bullard is.
We all know Johnson will roll out some gadget plays and looks that he’s been saving for the Packers, but he also knows the best way to hang is to control the clock and keep the Pack’s prolific offense on the sidelines. If the game is close in the fourth quarter, he’ll like his chances because his team has pulled off some fourth-quarter magic all season, and his QB has been clutch in late-game situations.
We’ll see how Caleb enjoys the frigid temperature and relentless pass rush the Packers will bring. His offensive line has been stellar, but Micah Parsons will test rookie LT Ozzy Trapilo all afternoon. He’s their third guy to man the position and has looked better of late, but he will have his hands full for 60 minutes, mostly against No. 1.
Williams still struggles with accuracy and will make a few really ugly throws every game, but then he’ll throw a laser. Of course, he’s dangerous as a runner too, and the Pack has been the best at containing scrambling QBs (giving up just 108 yards all season). This will be their stiffest test yet.
The Bears held Saquon Barkley in check last week, but that’s the exception this season. They give up 5.2 YPC, rank 24th in PFF run defense grade, and 26th in ESPN’s run stop win rate. Their D line is their weak link, and the Pack’s reconfigured OL interior should make holes for Josh Jacobs and Emanuel Wilson all afternoon.
They’re also one of the worst pass rush units in the league, last in pressure percentage on third downs, while Love is the top-rated QB in the league on third downs. How much will DC Dennis Allen blitz? He blitzed Jalen Hurts nearly 50% of the time last week.
The next question is, how aggressive will Love/MLF be against the ball-hawking Bears secondary? The third question is, will the Packers have Jayden Reed back? Their leading receiver over the past two years has been practicing over the last couple of weeks and seems to be on the verge of returning. LaFleur is keeping it under wraps — the team would need to activate him off IR by Saturday.
Reed’s return would open up LaFleur’s playbook, especially in the middle of the field, where Tucker Kraft had been feasting before his injury. The team should get Matthew Golden back, and with Dontayvion Wicks‘ emergence last week and Christian Watson’s three-game heater, the passing game should hum — it is Toyotathon season, after all.
The ideal game script for the Packers is to jump out to a lead and tempt Johnson to abandon the run game. Green Bay’s defense has been lights out in the first half all season. Unfortunately, the offense has been slow to kick into gear too often.
You all know the stats. LaFleur is 11-1 against Chicago, the lone loss coming in last year’s season finale when Love got knocked out in the first half. That dominance infuriates the Bears and their fanbase, and is undoubtedly why Johnson quipped in his first press conference that he’s “kinda enjoyed beating Matt LaFleur twice a year.” The Packers heard that, and they’ll remember on Sunday.
He’s just the latest Bears coach to mention the Packers when he arrives, to win himself over with the players and fans. The only way he brings his team into Lambeau and leaves with a win is if his defense continues to take the ball away. The Packers have the fewest turnovers in the league and have been nearly impossible to beat at Lambeau in December, a month in which LaFleur is 20-4, and Johnson is 0-0.
These teams will meet again 13 days later under the lights on a Saturday night at Soldier Field, and we’ll have other emerging storylines to discuss. Still, on this Sunday afternoon, the Packers are near touchdown favorites for a reason. They will have the best player on the field at all times, and Love and Micah will be the difference.
Packers 24
Bears 13
