As we get deeper into draft talks, instead of regurgitating the same names repeatedly, let’s look at some more deep-cut, Don’t be surprised if they take this guy picks.
For many teams, discussing these sleeper names as picks in the first round tends to be a waste of time. However, the Green Bay Packers are particular about what kind of players they draft, making it easier to identify these guys. In the past, they have strayed off of consensus to take these guys like Quay Walker and Eric Stokes.
Last year, Jordan Morgan and Edgerrin Cooper were dubbed “sleepers” for the Packers with their first-round pick. Both are now Packers.
Morgan was mentioned so often that, by the end of the process, he graduated from “sleeper” to a “short-list” guy for Green Bay in the first round. Landon Jackson, an edge out of Arkansas, is one name that has been trending in that direction as a potential pick for Green Bay at 23.
Ranked 43rd on The Athletic’s consensus big board, it would feel like a bit of a reach to most Packers fans if they were to stick and pick him at 23. I’d be in the group that would understand it but wonder why they didn’t trade down a bit first.
However, sometimes it just doesn’t happen that way. As you’ve probably heard many times in this draft class, there isn’t much of a difference between the players projected to go from the middle to late first to the late second. Much of this part of the draft will be about fit and preference, and Jackson is a perfect Packers fit.
Some Green Bay fans may not want to hear this, but he’s a similar archetype to Lukas Van Ness and Rashan Gary.
Measuring in at 6’6”, 264 lbs. at the combine, Jackson is a hulking defensive end with explosive athleticism, evidenced by his 10’9” broad jump and 40.5” vertical. He has a high motor and is extremely strong, with heavy hands that can throw offensive linemen off him. Jackson also has solid bend around the edge for a guy his size, highlighted by his 7.13 three-cone.
Jackson is also a smart and strong run defender. He reads offenses well and knows how to set up and shed blockers to get to the runner. He had an 88.8 PFF run-defense grade and a 9.3% run-stop rate, both elite. That gives him an extremely high floor and the chance to play on early downs immediately.
Some of Jackson’s flaws are common with guys as big and high-cut as him. His get-off is a bit slow, and he plays upright at times, losing leverage. When he wins a rep, he also can have difficulty changing directions and getting toward the quarterback, which shows with his 4.55 shuttle. Jackson will be billed as a raw pass rusher, but he’s already come a long way, and his motor shows how hard he’s willing to work.
Jackson’s production is the other part of his profile that’s a bit concerning. Having 6.5 sacks in each of the last two seasons isn’t terrible, but it’s also not something that will stand out in the draft class. He graded out at 74.4 against true pass sets, per PFF, and had a 0.1649 pass-rush win rate against true pass sets, which is near the bottom of this edge class.
With his body and athleticism, he’s projected to go in the late first to early second-round range.
Given all this, I believe he will be mentioned when on the clock at 23. So, let’s take a look at a scenario where it could make sense for Green Bay to go this route.
In the draft above, many of the favorites to land with the Packers are unavailable. Mike Green, Jahdae Barron, Tetairoa McMillan, Will Johnson, Shemar Stewart, Emeka Egbuka, Kenneth Grant, Derrick Harmon, and Matthew Golden are gone.
The top options still available at positions of need outside of Jackson would be:
- Mykel Williams, edge – The only testing we have is the 40, and he has the same production concerns as Jackson.
- Luther Burden III, WR – They’d have to break the trend, and we only got a 40 time.
- Walter Nolen, DT – Lighter and no testing.
- James Pearce Jr., edge – Not a Packers type because he is undersized.
With this board, I’d go with Williams or Burden. However, Gutekunst has never taken a guy with that little testing in the first round.
On the other hand, Landon Jackson hits their height and weight thresholds. He has a full testing profile, and it was elite. He has played a lot of snaps in three years and has shown improvement and enough production. Jackson also just turned 22 in January.
He makes a lot of sense for Green Bay.
