A lot can happen when you have 10 days between games. You can suddenly become everyone’s trendy Super Bowl pick. Your best receiver can undergo surgery on two, count them, two separate body parts. And your breakout tight end can suffer a knee injury in practice that has you fearing the worst for a few hours, only to learn it was just a scare.
Which brings us to the Green Bay Packers’ first road test of the season, the one that looks like the easiest on paper, but tell that to Rasheed Walker, Anthony Belton, and everyone else who will be assigned to ensure Myles Garrett doesn’t blow everything up. It doesn’t look like Zach Tom will be up for this one; he says it’s hard to run right now, which is less than ideal. We may not see him until after the Week 5 bye. The Packers, like everyone else in the universe, will assign extra bodies to try to contain Garrett.
The Cleveland Browns have dropped eight straight dating back to last year, and are once again everyone’s favorite punching bag. But they’ve actually been mostly competitive, losing to the Cincinnati Bengals by one because their new kicker missed a couple of field goals. They completely shut down Derrick Henry and were in the game in Baltimore until special teams and turnovers conspired to do them in.
This game features the league’s two best defensive players and the two best defenses through two weeks. The Pack lead the way, giving up 3.7 yards per play, and the Browns are right behind at 3.8. Green Bay’s offense has had its moments but has yet to find a rhythm, and they likely won’t this week, either. The run game should benefit from guard Aaron Banks‘ likely return, but that run defense is giving up two yards per carry to quality guys like Henry and Chase Brown, and Josh Jacobs is suddenly dealing with a sore ankle.
The Pack will likely need to rely on Jordan Love to move the ball. Without Jayden Reed and possibly Tucker Kraft — whose knee injury on Thursday appears to be just a tweak, but we’ll see if they’re cautious with him — they may need to give their rookie receivers a chance to step up and get more involved with some misdirection and gadget plays to counter Jim Schwartz’s aggressive defense. And as strong as this defense is, the Browns have yet to record a takeaway, which they almost need to do to stay in this one.
Special teams could also tilt this in Cleveland’s favor. Green Bay’s units were mostly putrid against the Commanders, whether in coverage or on returns. I’d love to see the Packers call up Mecole Hardman from the practice squad for this one. They’re down a receiver and could really use his experience on returns in what is always a windy stadium. Keisean Nixon is too valuable to risk back there, and the rookies are, well, rookies.
The biggest mismatch is the Pack’s defense against Joe Flacco, who ranks 30th with a passer rating of 70.1 through two games and is hearing footsteps from both rookie quarterbacks. No one in the league has thrown more passes through two games, and that is not a recipe for success for the Browns.
Rookie running back Quinshon Judkins made his debut last week and broke a 31-yard run. They could turn to him more heavily this week to give the offense some juice, though he signed his contract a day before the season and missed all of training camp, so he may not be ready for a heavy workload.
Flacco has some talented receivers at his disposal, with Jerry Jeudy and Cedric Tillman capable of making big plays, along with veteran tight end David Njoku and rookie Harold Fannin Jr., who is off to a historic start with 12 catches through two games. However, all that talent needs time to get open, and the Packers will have a significant impact on that.
The offensive line has been a mess, giving up a league high 35 pressures. They may be without right tackle Jack Conklin (elbow), who missed the last game, and their best guard, Pro Bowler Joel Bitonio, who missed practice on Wednesday and Thursday. Former Buckeye left tackle Dawand Jones has been a turnstile, ranking 90th out of 94 tackles this season.
Micah Parsons has been campaigning for the coaches to take off the training wheels and let him play full time, and this feels like the week to unleash him, a perfect prelude to the showdown in Dallas next Sunday night. After facing high-powered offenses the first two weeks, it’s hard to see this defense allowing more than a couple of first downs per drive.
If the Packers can keep Garrett from disrupting everything, and they succeeded in Week 1 against a similar stud in Aidan Hutchinson, it’s really hard to see them falling on their face. But with the game of the year in Big D looming, there’s a small chance of a letdown. I can see the Packers offense stalling and settling for field goals and keeping the Browns close.
Packers 16
Browns 9
