The NFC playoff picture is nearly set. The NFC South has yet to be decided between the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and the Carolina Panthers. Still, with the Minnesota Vikings’ victory over the Detroit Lions on Christmas Day, the Green Bay Packers have secured a Wild Card spot. They still have an outside chance at overcoming the Chicago Bears within the division, although it’ll require perfection from Green Bay and a Chicago stumble.
The most likely outcome is that the Packers get the No. 7 seed. It’s a very familiar spot.
The NFL added the seventh seed in the 2020 season, starting with the 2021 postseason. No team in the NFL has played more games as the No. 7 seed than Green Bay, which has done so three times. No other team has won a game as the No. 7 seed other than the Packers, when they knocked off the Dallas Cowboys two years ago before sputtering out in the Divisional Round against the San Francisco 49ers.
The addition of another seed in each conference has significantly benefited the Packers. If not for it, Green Bay would be looking in the mirror at a team that would be likely set to miss the playoffs for a fourth consecutive season, barring some good breaks in the final two weeks. With the added seed, they have instead made the postseason in each of Jordan Love‘s first two years as the starting quarterback.
Perception matters a whole hell of a lot in the NFL, whether we want to accept that or not. The thought of the Packers not making the playoffs four years in a row is almost unimaginable. They have the No. 7 seed to thank for it not being a reality.
Players and coaches in Green Bay talked all offseason about their goal of winning the NFC North. With two games left, the odds look bleak despite a 4-1 record against division rivals.
For the Packers to win the division and avoid the No. 7 seed yet again, they would have to beat the Baltimore Ravens and the Minnesota Vikings, while the Chicago Bears would need to lose to San Francisco and Detroit. Any combination of either team going 1-1, and the Bears would clinch the NFC North.
It doesn’t feel right even typing that.
What also isn’t great is looking at what would be another massive uphill battle to work through a gauntlet that is the NFC this year as the last team to get in. Even if you win your first game as the No. 7 seed, as the Packers did two years ago, you’re automatically signed up to face the No. 1 seed the following week, which is the only team in the conference coming off a bye.
The Packers had it in the palm of their hand last week against Chicago before collapsing in the final three minutes of regulation. For that, they have nobody to blame but themselves.
Still, it’s amazing to think that, if not for the expanded playoff format approved in 2020, the Packers would be in the middle of one hell of a drought. Who knows what changes would’ve already brought about?
There’s a chance the Packers could go 2-0, and even if the Bears win once and clinch the division, that Green Bay doesn’t end up as the No. 7 seed. That would require either the Los Angeles Rams or San Francisco going 0-2 the rest of the way.
The Rams face the Atlanta Falcons and the Arizona Cardinals, so they aren’t losing both, or probably even one, of those. The Niners face the Bears, then the Seattle Seahawks. It’s feasible that the 49ers could drop both, but the red-hot San Francisco team could still claim the No. 1 seed in the NFC at the moment.
That leaves just one door: the aforementioned path where the Packers go 2-0, and the Bears finish 0-2. Otherwise, Green Bay will be a seventh-seed again and likely head to Chicago on Wild Card weekend.
Some teams would take the No. 7 seed every single year if it were an offer on the table. Nobody is suggesting looking down on the Packers for making the playoffs the last couple of years despite being the last team in. The point is that, if not for the recent change to the playoff format, Green Bay would be looked at in a much different light, even at this current moment. It’s also noteworthy just how daunting the task is as the No. 7 seed, knowing you start with the No. 2 and then No. 1 seed just to begin a potential Super Bowl journey.
Nobody has gotten past the No. 2 seed as the No. 7 seed except for Green Bay. Maybe it has more rabbits to pull out of the hat this year if the chips fall that way. It’s certainly looking that way.
Either way, the Packers should get into the playoffs, which is an accomplishment in and of itself. However, they can thank playoff expansion for that. No team has benefited from it more than Green Bay.
