Every Green Bay Packers fan is talking about Jeff Hafley’s controversial third-and-11 call with 15 seconds left in the fourth quarter against the Chicago Bears in Week 18.
The Bears were out of timeouts and needed 15 yards to get into field goal range. Hafley opted for a three-man rush with three safeties deep, all backpedaling at the snap. Caleb Williams hit D.J. Moore on a quick slant, and the Bears spiked the ball on the next play. Cairo Santos drilled the game-winning field goal, sealing Chicago’s first win at Lambeau since 2015.
“Obviously, can’t be in that call in that situation,” Matt LaFleur admitted during Monday’s press conference. “Ultimately, that’s on me.”
He emphasized that Green Bay needed a low-hole defender near the box to prevent the quick slant that set up Chicago’s game-winning field goal.
Don’t get me wrong, that was a bad call and a clear lapse in situational awareness from Hafley. The right move was to rush at least four and not have the safeties so deep. Why play prevent against the most-sacked quarterback in the league? Green Bay fans are justifiably upset, and I’m sure Hafley would handle it differently if given another chance. However, to take one misstep and turn it into an indictment of the Packers’ entire defense is an overreaction.
Green Bay finished the regular season fifth in total defense, their highest ranking since the 2010 Super Bowl XLV team. They were also sixth in scoring defense, allowing just 19.9 points per game, the fewest since 2010.
The Packers moved from 27th to seventh in defensive DVOA in just one year. They also ranked fourth in EPA/play, fourth in EPA/pass, and 10th in EPA/rush. The DVOA stat is especially important because it’s adjusted for strength of schedule, which undermines the argument that Green Bay’s defense can’t stop good teams. That take doesn’t hold up when considering how DVOA factors in competition.
It’s worth noting that Hafley’s defense finished the season as a top-10 unit in every statistical category. They did so despite Jaire Alexander missing 10 games, a lack of pass rush, and having Edgerrin Cooper play only the fourth-most snaps among off-ball linebackers on the team.
Also, they did this in their first year in the scheme!
Hafley’s defense forced three turnovers against the Philadelphia Eagles in Week 1, held Jared Goff to his fourth- and fifth-lowest yards per attempt of the season, and kept the Detroit Lions’ highest-scoring offense in the league to just 17 points at Lambeau.
Sam Darnold recorded his second-worst passing grade of the season in Minnesota’s trip to Lambeau Field, and Green Bay was without two of their top-three secondary players in their Week 17 encounter. Javon Bullard had just returned to practice and worked in the nickel all week. However, the Packers moved him to safety when Zayne Anderson left with a concussion.
Still, despite all that, it’s hard to convince some Green Bay fans that they have a good defense. Honestly, I don’t blame them. Years of watching Dom Capers’ unit get shredded in every way imaginable can distort anyone’s perception.
I’ve been told that the Packers played the AFC South, and because of that, what the defense accomplished doesn’t count.
Newsflash: Green Bay didn’t play 17 games against the AFC South.
Packers fans spent years pleading for a solid defense after watching Tommy DeVito, Desmond Ridder, Kenny Pickett, and Jimmy Garoppolo dismantle their defense last season. Unsurprisingly, so many underwhelming performances have skewed people’s expectations.
Now that Green Bay finally has a defense capable of holding its own, some fans dismiss their improvement because of the level of competition. It feels like no defensive coordinator can ever catch a break. No matter who’s in charge, there’s always a negative narrative waiting to surface. It’s exhausting.
The idea here isn’t to suggest that Green Bay’s defense is flawless. I’ve already pointed out their lack of a pass rush. They’ve struggled to defend the middle of the field and screens. Hafley might not always have an answer for everything, but he’ll have the offseason to figure out how to improve the defense in Year 2.
Men and women lie, but the numbers don’t. The stats show that Green Bay’s defense is good, while the tape highlights areas for improvement. These two perspectives can coexist, with each holding its own truth.
