When the Minnesota Timberwolves drafted Jaden McDaniels in 2020, they knew he had untapped offensive potential.
McDaniels found his niche and minutes early in the NBA as the Timberwolves’ primary point-of-attack defender. He helped pave the way for the team’s newfound defensive identity and was a crucial contributor to Minnesota’s historic success over the past four seasons.
Although McDaniels occasionally flashed brilliance on offense, there was always going to be more room for the Timberwolves and Chris Finch to find better ways to utilize his offensive skill set and give him a break from constant point-of-attack defensive duties. It was just a matter of how they could get there.
For years now, McDaniels’ offensive utilization, potential room for growth, and increased aggression have always been topics of discussion. Everyone from Chris Finch and Anthony Edwards to the fans watching at home has clamored for McDaniels to continue building upon his impressive offensive performances.
McDaniels’ offensive output has just come down to usage and opportunity.
Within Minnesota’s offensive system, McDaniels has spent most of his time in the corner. There, the Wolves have relied on him as a spot-up catch-and-shoot (C&S) threat. He occasionally can attack closeouts, but he does not have a ton of room to work when he has to play out of the corner.
When he operates out of the corner, McDaniels must either attack into the heart of the defense, or have to tightrope down the baseline.
To support Finch’s use of McDaniels, the corners have been the most fruitful three-point shooting location for him. McDaniels has wavered as an above-the-break shooter throughout his career. Therefore, defenses will respect him much more as a shooter in the corners rather than spaced above the break. McDaniels also puts so much energy into his defense, so it’s fair to give him more of a conservative role on offense.
Through McDaniels’ career, 52% of his 3PA have been from the corner, and 91% of his total 3PA have been C&S attempts.
Chris Finch has used McDaniels on Chicago/Zoom actions to get him a screen with momentum downhill, but it has not fully expanded McDaniels’ off-the-dribble game.
Lately, McDaniels has only played on the ball more when Julius Randle or Edwards have missed time due to injury. It began with Randle’s groin injury on Jan. 30 last season, which forced him to miss 13 games.
McDaniels stepped up offensively sans Randle. He averaged 18.5 points on 47.9% from the field and 29.3% from three. Attempting 14.8 FGA per game with a two-point attempt rate (2PAr) of .698. The raw scoring output was impressive, but it was McDaniels’ overall shot diet that stood out above everything.
McDaniels’ reliance on corner and C&S three-point attempts has naturally kept his three-point volume relatively the same when Randle was out. It was a slight change, up from 3.7 to 4.5 3PA per game, but it didn’t match the trajectory of McDaniels’ FGA numbers, which went from 8.9 to 14.8 per game.
His three-point attempt rate (3PAr) provides a clearer visual of his change in shot diet. Before Randle’s injury, McDaniels had a .418 3PAr. Although during the 13 games that Randle missed, McDaniels had a .302 3PAr, despite the uptick in 3PA per game.
When McDaniels was earning more shots and on-ball freedom, he was getting downhill and relying on his inside-the-arc game to fill the scoring void left by Randle. Much of it was because he could operate above the arc off the dribble and be more involved as the ball handler with on-ball screens.
That trend continued across the five games Edwards missed, including the Indiana Pacers game in which Edwards suffered his injury and played only the first three minutes.
The Timberwolves found a balance on offense by distributing usage when Randle was injured. However, Edwards’ absence has created a bigger challenge.
Edwards is the engine of Minnesota’s offense. He is their best shooter and scorer, and he constantly creates advantages. Taking him off the court will create a domino effect on opponents’ defensive matchups. Not only will the Timberwolves players have to step into larger roles, but they will also face tougher matchups.
In the five games Edwards missed, McDaniels took the step forward the Timberwolves needed to survive.
He averaged 20.4 points, shooting 56.5% from the field on 13.8 FGA per game, shooting 9 of 18 from three-point range. McDaniels once again relied on a two-point (2P) shot diet, shooting 30 of 51 (58.8%) on 2P field goals.
Cumulatively, McDaniels has had a 2PAr of .709 in the 18 games amid the longer injury stretches of Randle or Edwards over the last two seasons.
The data has also passed the eye test.
Now that we have an 18-game sample of extended time without Randle or Edwards, it’s easy to see that McDaniels is ready to take his much-anticipated leap.
Finch should push to implement McDaniels’ clear advantages as an inside-the-arc scorer off the dribble into the offense.
Players like Jaylen Clark, T.J. Shannon, Mike Conley, and Rob Dillingham can take on McDaniels’ corner role, while the offense allows McDaniels to operate above the break off the dribble.
McDaniels must move around because you don’t want to rely on defenses sagging off him when he is above the break. If he sticks up top, defenders can help at the nail onto his teammates as they attempt to crack the defense’s shell. However, much of that is lineup-dependent. There are going to be better pockets for McDaniels to operate on the ball, especially when one or both of Edwards and Randle rest.
Ideally, McDaniels can be a polished third option on the court with Randle and Edwards moving forward, and he will not have to rely on just sitting in the corner waiting for a kickout. For now, focusing on areas where the offense may stall and on lineups that McDaniels’ scoring ability can bolster is something that needs to be taken advantage of.
It is going to come down to some lineup tinkering, and the mental side of McDaniels staying aggressive and not reverting to his old role. Ultimately, there just hasn’t been as polished a sample of McDaniels as a reliable scoring threat as he has been in the few games this year without Edwards.
