Jaden McDaniels sometimes gives a look to the camera. It’s a half grin. It’s subtle coming from a guy who has built a persona around having no emotions, but it’s there. The look is almost to say, I’m going to do something, Jaden McDanielsey.
He gave me that look on Thursday, after the Minnesota Timberwolves’ 117-92 victory over the Golden State Warriors, in response to my question about why he enjoys playing on the road.
“Everyone’s against us, I’ve kinda been like that forever since high school. I never liked playing at home, I mean not like that.” McDaniels said with a smile. “Playing on the road just brings that aggression or something.”
The quote adds to McDaniels’ mythos. The guy who is best friends with Minnesota’s cult hero, Naz Reid. Joe Ingles frequently wears a hat with McDaniels’ face on it.
McDaniels is the stoic enforcer on Minnesota’s defense, who breaks up fights and sometimes starts them with opposing players and inanimate objects. He now is on record as the guy who would rather play on the road and face boos, then in front of a home crowd’s cheers. McDaniels has taken a huge leap this season for the Wolves, but in the playoffs, it has become the most crucial part of Minnesota’s hopes of winning a championship.
Chris Finch has long called McDaniels the barometer of Minnesota’s ball movement, but he has been the measuring stick of the team’s success in the playoffs. McDaniels is averaging 19 points on 65.0% shooting and 46.7% from 3-point range in the five wins. He averages 12.0 shots per game, 6.0 rebounds, 1.2 assists, 1.6 steals, and 0.6 blocks. McDaniels just plays 32.2 minutes and only averages 3.2 fouls per win. As a result, he has a plus 12.6 plus/minus.
However, McDaniels averages 38.0 minutes in losses, and only 10.0 points, 4.0 rebounds, and 1.0 assists. He shoots 39.1% from the field and has failed to hit a 3-point shot in those two losses. His plus/minus craters to minus-3.6, a 16.2 difference between wins and losses. He also hasn’t registered a steal in the losses. His only counting stat that increases is his blocks per game, which rises to 1.0 from 0.6.
Advanced stats also indicate McDaniels is a key cog in the team’s success. His offensive rating is 126.4 in wins, 4.6 points higher than the team’s average in wins (121.8). However, McDaniels’ offensive rating cratered to 102.9 in losses, which is still significantly higher than Minnesota’s offensive rating (95.6).
Minnesota’s rating indicates a less drastic drop in production, but still a drop for McDaniels. It’s 103.2 in wins and 107.2 in losses. McDaniels’ total rating change is a 27.5 difference in net rating between wins and losses.
The drastic changes could be attributed to overall team performance. However, upon further digging into the statistics, it is much more likely due to McDaniels not being used as much in the losses. McDaniels’ usage percentage drops by 4.8% in Wolves losses, which may seem minuscule, but in reality reflects the fewer plays per game that are run through McDaniels and with him ending the possession by either a shot or turnover.
These are possessions that McDaniels could use regardless of winning or losing. They could get McDaniels into the restricted areas on driving opportunities off the catch, an area of the floor where he is shooting 75.0% on five attempts per game. Those possessions could also go to McDaniels in his off-the-dribble paint pull-up shots, which he is making at a 59.1% clip.
Looking deeper into the data, when McDaniels is allowed to make decisions, and has been one of the best scorers in the playoffs. Look at his touch time, or when a player has the ball before the shot. He’s in the 2-6 seconds category, reflecting his catch-and-drive ability.
McDaniels is shooting 60.5% from the field, which ranks fourth highest amongst players who have over 1.5 of these opportunities per game. McDaniels shoots 6.1 of these shots per game, which is 51.2% of his total attempts per game. Of players that shoot more than 6.1 of these attempts per game, no one shoots a higher percentage than McDaniels.
That’s just one example of where McDaniels’ offense has shone in the playoffs. However, it drops in losses. He averages one less attempt per game in this specific case, despite playing more minutes. McDaniels’ 3-point attempts per game also decrease, which leads to less usage. The less usage allows players not to focus on him as much, and crowd the paint. It allows them to shut down Julius Randle‘s post-ups and Anthony Edwards’ driving lanes, creating a vicious cycle.
Finch has called McDaniels the barometer of the team’s ball movement. He’s usually the one who benefits most due to how efficient a player he has become. That also bears out in Minnesota’s team statistics. They average 9.5 fewer assists in losses in the playoffs, and their assist percentage drops by 11.5%. The correlation between McDaniels’ good games coming with wins and the drop in ball movement in losses seems to confirm Finch’s idea. However, McDaniels’ ability to score has increased to the point where he has become crucial in wins.
While basketball is a complex game full of moving parts, sometimes the simplest things, such as ball movement, can be crucial to concocting a winning formula. McDaniels’ usage has become just as crucial to the Wolves as his stoic demeanor and the lore surrounding him. With McDaniels acknowledging that he will feel more comfortable on the road, the Timberwolves must maximize him to take a couple of steps closer to eliminating the Warriors from the playoffs.
