Ryen Russillo joined Bill Simmons on his Feb. 24 podcast before Julius Randle returned. Simmons and Russillo were speculating about which team could make a run and close the season strong enough to carry momentum into the postseason and make a championship bid. Eventually, the Minnesota Timberwolves came up in the conversation. While breaking down the Wolves, Russillo voiced his observations over the past few weeks on the team.
“There’s just a Randle stretch here where they might just be better without this guy,” Russillo said grimacing.
“You’re going to go ‘might’ for that?” Simmons asks apoplectically.
“They are,” Russillo responds, looking off-camera.
“I just think they are unquestionably better when he’s not out there for them. I don’t know, I’ve been watching basketball my whole life,” Simmons responded with a shrug. “He screws up the spacing. He might be a good player on other teams.”
“He’s good for 20, you know, and it’s like okay,” Russilo concludes, “but there’s just a lot of other stuff we need from him.”
The conversation then turned to Anthony Edwards. Simmons and Russillo discussed Edwards’ shot volume and marveled at what physical feats he is capable of and where he can bring the team. The overall semi-glowing analysis of the Wolves concluded without Simmons or Russillo mentioning Randle again.
However, Randle has done a lot this season to fit in with his new team that has gone under the radar, and he’s opened up opportunities for bench players and helped role players shine alongside him. He’s also altered his ball-dominant playstyle to fit better next to Edwards, allowing him more space and freedom.
Randle has been a work in process with the Wolves all season. Since the New York Knicks traded for him in a package for Karl-Anthony Towns immediately before training camp, he has been trying to grow as fast as possible.
He seemed to be making progress before his Feb. 5 injury. The Wolves went 11-7 from Jan. 1 until he was forced to leave the rotation. After Randle returned, his value was apparent from the outset. In the 116-98 win over the Phoenix Suns on Mar. 2, Randle finished with 20 points, 6 rebounds, and 3 assists. He shot 8 of 14, including 2 of 5 from three and 2 of 2 from the free throw line.
He finished with a 0 plus-minus and a 0 net rating. However, that hides his impact. Randle had a +11 net rating when paired with Naz Reid and Donte DiVincenzo, despite Reid shooting 3 of 15 against Phoenix because Randle excels when paired with DiVincenzo and others on the second unit.
In the 18 games from Jan. 1 to his injury on Feb. 5, Randle’s two-man lineup net ratings with bench players were jaw-dropping.
Jaylen Clark and Randle played seven minutes together and compiled a +45.1 net rating. In 171 minutes, Randle and DiVincenzo have a +6 net rating. Randle and Reid have a +5.3. Randle and Nickeil Alexander-Walker are +5.2. The only two bench players Randle did not have positive net ratings with are Josh Minott and Rob Dillingham. Players who, if the Wolves are at full strength, are likely not playing.
Randle’s positive net rating is because he’s the primary scoring option when surrounded by bench players. The Wolves can slightly alter their play style to allow Randle to post up and bully defenders while also surrounding him with one other starter and three bench players who can shoot from distance. That has allowed Randle to flex his scoring ability by not facing the same congestion in the paint he faces when playing with Rudy Gobert and Anthony Edwards.
To prove that point, a lineup of Randle, DiVincenzo, Edwards, Reid, and Alexander-Walker averaged a net rating of +7.3 per game over 142 minutes from January to Randles’s injury. Sub out DiVincenzo and add Mike Conley into that same lineup, and it’s +29.9 in 127 minutes. Go back to the same original lineup and sub Jaden McDaniels in for Edwards and it’s +27.8 in 127.8 minutes.
My point is that with a partial bench unit and space, Randle is an asset for the Wolves.
Randle and Edwards also feed off each other. In over 413 minutes from Jan. 1 to Randle’s injury, they have a net rating of +5.6 together, which is nothing to scoff at; a 0.0 net rating represents a player around league average. The rating is mainly due to the personnel that surround those two players.
When those two are playing with lineups that encourage space, like with Reid and shooters on the wings, it allows for both players to work in an optimal environment. Randle gets to dribble in the post, survey the floor, and pass or overpower his defender for an assist or bucket.
Off-ball, Randle allows Edwards to have an uncrowded paint and a runway for liftoff for a highlight dunk. Even though he is not a perfect three-point shooter, Ranlde offers a catch-and-drive ability that keeps defenders close to them.
The pick-and-drive plays the Wolves run are a prime example. When Edwards off-the-guard drives into the paint, and the defense collapses, he fires the ball to Randle, who can shoot when open. However, he also can pump fake and drive the ball with power towards the rim.
We can also see that in pick-and-roll, where he has the power to catch the pass and bully to the rim. Either way, it adds another layer of planning for a defense, allowing Edwards to have more room and fewer double teams. When teams do, he can make an easy read to a teammate.
The narrative that Randle is just a 20-point scorer may have been true in the past, but Randle appears to be trying to make things work in Minnesota. In the 18 games before his injury, he’s shown that he’s a potent scorer and net-positive when playing with bench-led units. His positives on the offensive side of the ball also complement Edwards.
If that trend continues for the Wolves as Randle works his way back, they still could lock up a non-playoff seed and pose a threat in the playoffs. However, it all hinges on Randle being more than just a guy that can get you 20.
