Timberwolves

Minnesota Has Cracked the Code On the Lakers

Photo Credit: Jesse Johnson-Imagn Images

Jaden McDaniels spoke on the Target Center’s electricity after the Minnesota Timberwolves beat the Los Angeles Lakers 116-104 to take a 2-1 series lead.

“I would say it felt like a playoff atmosphere. It was better than the Lakers crowd for sure,” McDaniels said, smirking. “They came out and did their job, and we feed off their energy. We’re grateful for them.”

The Timberwolves have a quick turnaround now with Game 4 taking place Sunday at 2:30 Central time. The Wolves will need the fans to bring the energy again, but they appear to have cracked the code to beating the Lakers. Now, they must execute their game plan and play consistently to close out the series.

The correlations between the victories in Games 1 and 3 are pretty straightforward. McDaniels has to be aggressive off the catch and use his size to score in the interior. Julius Randle must be a central hub for the offense to run through. Finally, they need to move the ball, allowing them to attack Luka Doncic and Austin Reaves.

McDaniels took over Game 3, scoring a career-high 30 points on 13 of 22 shooting, including 10 of 12 in the restricted area. Most of these came off the catch after the offense’s initial action. McDaniels attacked a Lakers defense that deployed 6’8″ Rui Hachimura as the rim defender. Importantly, Anthony Edwards often pushed the ball McDaniels’ way, evidenced by Edwards’s four assists on McDaniels’ makes.

That action to McDaniels has been available through all three games this series, something the Wolves capitalized on in Game 1. However, the Wolves fell away from it in Game 2 despite the Lakers playing nearly identical defense.

McDaniels’ latent offensive ability is evident in his offensive rating: 132.3 in Game 1, 95.5 in Game 2, and 124.7 in Game 3. The changes in rating seem to correlate not only with the eye test (Jaden appeared more involved) but also with the usage: 18.1% in Game 1, 15.7% in Game 2, and 26.7% in Game 3.

Keeping McDaniels consistently involved in the offense and looking for him off of drives will remain crucial in Game 4. The Lakers have not found an adjustment other than Minnesota’s lack of consistency to slow him down.

The Wolves must also allow Randle to be the hub that sets up the offense. Randle is averaging a career-low 23.1% usage percentage. However, he’s posting career highs in assist ratio (20.3) and offensive rating (114.8), while posting a career-low in turnover ratio (13.5).

Again, the stats meet the eye test. Randle is playing unbelievable basketball, especially when bringing the ball up and setting the offense. That has become imperative because Mike Conley is playing fewer minutes.

Randle is becoming a calming influence like Conley. Despite playing 79:50 minutes, Randle has only had three turnovers in the past two games. Randle continues to play point forward. That draws LeBron James or the post defender out to the perimeter on plays where Randle initiates, causing more openings for Edwards to drive and kick to McDaniels or finish.

The Wolves also must continue to put as much pressure on Doncic and Reaves as possible, something they have done remarkably well all series. Doncic has been involved in 60 field goal attempts (20 per game), and the Timberwolves are shooting 50% from the field and 50% from 3 for 73 total points.

Reaves has fared better on paper, holding the Wolves to 20 of 53 from the field and just 16.7% from 3. However, Reaves has been one of the primary reasons for McDaniels’ success off the dribble. McDaniels has poured in 20 points in the 27 possessions Reaves has guarded him, allowing him to shoot 66.7% from the field with only one 3-point attempt.

Minnesota has consistently exploited the Doncic-Reaves matchups, but the ball movement off the attacks needs to remain consistent. In this series, the Wolves have gotten 24 assists off plays where Doncic or Reaves is the defender, highlighting that attacking them with the ball and picking on their off-ball defense is imperative.

The Lakers have struggled to make defensive adjustments throughout the series, especially at Target Center.

Even the Wolves struggle to hear their own plays.

“It was so loud in there today,” said Edwards. “When Ju hit his first basket, I couldn’t hear the play. … It was so loud in there. That’s probably the most fun I’ve had playing in Target Center.”

Minnesota should expect LA’s best in Game 4, because only 13 teams have ever come back from a 3-1 deficit. However, James has some experience with those odds, coming back from 3-1 in the 2016 finals. The Wolves must maintain consistency to put that kind of pressure on the Lakers and have a closeout opportunity to put Doncic and James behind them in Game 5.

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Photo Credit: Jesse Johnson-Imagn Images

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