The Minnesota Timberwolves could use more depth in their guard room.
Last year, the Wolves traded two future first-round draft picks to the San Antonio Spurs to jump up to the 8th pick and draft Rob Dillingham. The former Kentucky point guard is still among the options for rotational minutes going into the 2024-25 season, but they still need more talent in the backcourt alongside Anthony Edwards.
Mike Conley is turning 38 in the offseason and is slowing down. Rob Dillingham is an electric prospect, but the Timberwolves would be wise to bring more talent in to help insulate the lead guard position. They must add more developmental talent for the post-Conley without short-circuiting Dillingham’s development timeline.
If Michigan State freshman Jase Richardson is available at 17, the Wolves must consider him.
Background
Jason “Jase” Richardson II is the son of former NBA 13-year veteran Jason Richardson, a career 17.1 points per game scorer.
Jase measured 6’.05” without shoes at the NBA combine, with a 6’6” wingspan and 178.4 lbs. He is a smaller guard, but his +5.5” wingspan offers intrigue.
The Recruiting Services Consensus Index (RSCI) ranked Richardson 31st in his high school class, making him a consensus 4-star prospect. He had offers from Alabama, Arkansas, Florida, Kansas, and USC. However, he elected to commit to his father’s alma mater, Michigan State, and play for Tom Izzo.
Richardson began the season playing off the bench but quickly earned Izzo’s trust, which is rare for a freshman. His consistent play leading into Michigan State’s Big Ten conference games allowed Richardson to start the final 15 games of the season.
Earning Izzo’s trust as a freshman is a fantastic representation of Jase’s coachability and stable play. He continued to improve as the season went on and matched his 4-star profile.
The Numbers
Richardson had an impressive freshman season on an MSU team that finished 30-7 (17-3 in conference play), won the Big Ten regular season, and made it to the Elite 8. At season’s end, Jase was voted to the Third-team All-Big Ten and the Big Ten All-Freshman team.
In 36 games, Richardson averaged 12.1 points, 3.3 rebounds, and 1.9 assists. He shot 49.3% from the field, 41.2% from three on 3.2 attempts per game, and 83.6% from the free-throw line on 3.4 attempts per game, with a true shooting percentage of 62.4% and an effective field-goal percentage of 57.4%.
In his 15 starts, Richardson averaged 16.1 points, 4.6 rebounds, and 1.7 assists. He shot 47% from the field, 42% from three on 4.6 attempts per game, and 81.9% from the free-throw line on 4.8 attempts per game. Holding a true shooting percentage of 61.4% and an effective field-goal percentage of 55.8% to finish his freshman season.
Richardson had impressive counting stats. However, his advanced analytics truly represent his impact in East Lansing.
- Jase’s season 10.0 box-plus-minus (BPM) was 2nd in the Big Ten.
- His 9.2 BPM in conference play ranked 7th in the Big Ten.
- 10.0 season BPM was tied for second among freshmen with Baylor’s V.J. Edgecombe. They trailed only Cooper Flagg’s 15.0.
- Jase’s 10.0 BPM ranks 26th all-time among freshmen on BartTorvik’s database, which dates back to the 2008 season.
Offensive Impact
Richardson’s assist numbers don’t stand out among college guards. He only averaged 1.9 per game. Still, Richardson played in a unique scenario at MSU.
Despite being a shade over 6’0”, Richardson played most of his offense off the ball because Michigan State already had two seasoned college basketball veterans in Jaden Akins and Tre Holloman. Therefore, they relied on Richardson more as a secondary playmaker.
Richardson excels at valuing possessions and taking care of the basketball. He averaged 0.8 turnovers per game and had a turnover rate of just 7.9%.
He still shines as a playmaker when he gets touches. Even though Richardson often played off the ball, he found ways to impact the game off of curls, secondary pick-and-rolls, attacking closeouts off the dribble, and in transition.
Because he played an off-ball role, Michigan State often relied on Richardson as a spot-up three-point shooter. His ability to knock down kickouts a pass away from Holloman and Akins and pull-up off the dribble was vital on an MSU team that was among the worst in Division 1 basketball from beyond the arc.
MSU ranked 336th in three-point makes per game (6.1), 319th in three-point attempts per game (19.5), and 324th in three-point percentage (31.1%).
In points per 100 possessions (PPP), Richardson ranked in the 93rd percentile on spot-up possessions and in the 96th percentile on catch-and-shoot opportunities. He shot 46.3% on catch-and-shoot threes and 47 of 114 (41.2%) overall from deep.
Jase’s smooth lefty stroke should translate to the NBA, allowing him to be effective away from the ball. He has a knack for finding open space to give the ball handler an outlet.
Most importantly, Richardson can parlay spot-up catches into other forms of offense. He can attack a closeout by getting to the mid-range, where he displayed impressive touch, or into side-step and stepback off the dribble jumpers. Richardson’s stocky frame allowed him to bump through contact from defenders and find windows.
Richardson’s finishing at the rim may vary in the NBA due to his short stature, but he has a silky finishing package. Last season, he shot 60% at the rim in the half-court on 55 attempts. 25% of his half-court shot attempts came at the rim.
Defense
Like any other smaller guard prospect in a size-dependent NBA, Richardson’s defense at the next level and his ability to offer any defense in a playoff setting are uncertain.
Projecting defense with small players is difficult. Still, Jase’s stockier frame, quickness, and overall basketball IQ give him some tools to work with at the next level.
Richardson’s Fit with Minnesota
It’s difficult to project if Richardson would have a realistic chance at minutes in his rookie season, given Chris Finch’s rotational tendencies and the likelihood that Rob Dillingham gets more opportunities this upcoming season. However, Minnesota’s guard room needs insulation.
Michigan State often used Richardson like the Wolves use Conley. It’s easy to see how a more refined Richardson could fit seamlessly alongside Anthony Edwards. Richardson offers ample ball-handling, PnR ability, spot-up shooting a pass away, and turnover efficiency. He has many of the traits that made Conley a good fit alongside Edwards.
When Jase worked out with the Portland Trail Blazers, they asked him which smaller players in the NBA he models his game after.
His response? “Mike Conley.”
Despite Richardson’s size shortcomings, it’s easy to project a rotational guard role in the NBA. His multidimensional offense, ability to win Tom Izzo’s trust in his lone college season, unselfishness, high feel for the game, soft touch, and sturdy frame give him great tools to work with to succeed in the NBA.
If Richardson is available at 17, he should be among the Timberwolves and Tim Connelly’s first choice for more guard help.
