The Minnesota Timberwolves have been inconsistent all season.
They were on an eight-game winning streak, the longest in the NBA, before falling flat against the shorthanded Indiana Pacers, 132-130, on Monday night. The loss kept the Wolves in the seventh seed. However, they still could have a 50-win season and are surging to the playoffs at the perfect time.
Despite this year’s highs and lows, the Wolves are starting to play like serious contenders. So, how seriously should fans and the NBA take the Wolves?
We must look to the past and see how the Wolves compare to past champions to answer this question.
Championship teams tend to have similar metrics every year. Offensive and defensive ratings gauge a team’s dominance. Assist percentage, assist-to-turnover ratio, and true shooting percentage are also consistent for championship teams.
Let’s dig into the Wolves first.
The Wolves are:
- 10th in offensive rating
- 6th in defensive rating
- 13th in assist percentage
- 20th in assist to turnover
- 11th in true shooting
The data isn’t ideal. A good defense still anchors the Wolves. They have an above-average offense but struggle to move the ball and turn it over often on offense. That meets the eye test for anyone who has watched the Wolves all season. They rely on Anthony Edwards to play a heavy load in isolation, leading to less passing and occasionally crunch-time letdowns.
For this exercise, let’s add up all the rankings and divide by 5 to create a number for each championship team, allowing us to compare them to the Timberwolves. For the Wolves, that number is an average rank of 12, which reflects a good, not great, team.
2023-24 Boston Celtics, 5.6 average
- 1st in OR
- 2nd in DR
- 21st in A%
- 3rd in A/T
- 1st in TS%
2022-23 Denver Nuggets, 6 average
- 5th in OR
- 15th in DR
- 2nd in A%
- 5th in AT
- 3rd in TS%
2021-22 Golden State Warriors, 7 average
- 16th in OR
- 2nd in DR
- 1st in A%
- 12th in A/T
- 4th in TS%
2020-21 Milwaukee Bucks, 11.4 average
- 5th in OR
- 9th in DR
- 25th in A%
- 13th in A/T
- 5th in TS%
2019-20 Los Angeles Lakers, 10.4 average
- 11th in OR
- 3rd in DR
- 15th in A%
- 14th in A/T
- 9th in TS%
2018-19 Toronto Raptors, 8.2 average
- 5th in OR
- 5th in DR
- 14th in A%
- 13th in A/T
- 4th in TS%
2017-18 Warriors, 3.4 average
- 3rd in OR
- 11th in DR
- 1st in A%
- 1st in A/T
- 1st in TS
The data paints a pretty clear picture. In these five categories, the Wolves would be the lowest-rated team over the past seven years if they were to win it all. The data also tells us teams must be elite in at least three of the five categories.
- Last season, the Celtics took care of the ball and were great offensively and defensively, which made up for their iso-heavy play.
- The year before that, the Nuggets didn’t have the scariest defense, but they made up for it by moving the ball well, making shots, and not turning it over.
In 2022-23, - Golden State had an elite defense, passed the ball well, played as a team, and had elite shot-making ability.
Championship teams seem to thrive in these categories, creating doubts about Minnesota. The Wolves have a great defense but don’t do anything else at an elite level. That suggests they won’t end this season as a champion.
This formula isn’t foolproof but accounts for the areas where championship teams excel. Based on the data, we could speculate that the Cleveland Cavaliers are most likely to win (5.8 average). The Nuggets follow them at 6.2, then the Celtics (8.0), the Pacers (7.8), and the Oklahoma City Thunder (8.6).
The silver lining for the Wolves is that they are in the conversation despite their inconsistency this season. If we specifically look at the past 15 games, the Wolves are a 7.6 average. That’s where the hope lies. If the Wolves have turned a corner and continue to play at a high level, they will likely rise more in the season rankings, especially with their easy schedule.
However, that is the story of the Wolves this season. Occasionally, they look like a championship-level team. At other times, they lose to a shorthanded Pacers team. The Wolves still hold their destiny in their hands. If they finish the year strong, they will finally have a chance to hang a banner.
