I was so close. So close to a 3-0 week that would have put me at 25-25 for the season. But no, Liam Coen decides to send out his kicker for a meaningless field goal in the final 30 seconds with a three-point lead. Jags win by six, covering the spread by a half point. Grrr.
So it will take another strong week to prevent a losing season. We all know Week 18 can be funky, with some teams’ motivation up in the air, and others shutting it down completely.
Fear not, I’m up to the challenge. I’ve found a trio of puppies that I’ll be backing on the season’s final regular-season weekend.
Chargers +12 ½ at Denver
I’m aware that Justin Herbert is not playing in this one and Jim Harbaugh may elect to sit some other key starters, but the line still seems way too steep to me. Denver knows a win will get them the AFC’s top seed, but they’re likely to play conservatively, try to shorten the game, and leave the game without any key injuries.
Trey Lance gets his first start for the Chargers and has shown real development when he’s gotten snaps. Veteran Keenan Allen has some big money incentives he can hit, so I expect LA to air it out a bit and give Lance a chance to shine. The total is 37 for this game, and it has 24-13 written all over it. I like the Chargers to get the back door cover.
Raiders +5 ½ vs. Kansas City
Again, I’m aware the Raiders are tanking and that a loss will lock up the No. 1 seed. The only likely way they lose it is if they win and the Giants lose at home to Dallas. They’ll know the results of that game before they kick off. If the Giants spring the upset, the Raiders will be No. 1 win or lose.
Even if they lose this game, it will be hard to lose by as many as 6 points. The Chiefs have no incentive to win either, sitting at pick 9 right now, and they could drop to pick 12 with a win. Not to mention, they’ll likely sit out a number of their key veterans, and their QB hasn’t shown that he is NFL-quality so far.
I can see them making sure Travis Kelce scores in what will likely be his final game, but once he does, I see them putting it on cruise control the rest of the way. The Chiefs may pull it out, but it will likely be something like 20-17.
Steelers +3 ½ vs. Baltimore
I’m sure I’m on an island here, but I’ll happily buy low on Pittsburgh in this spot, with most of the world gleefully riding the Ravens after their strong performance in Green Bay. The Steelers offense definitely misses DK Metcalf, but in what could be Aaron Rodgers’ final game, I think Arthur Smith draws up a gameplan that helps the old guy shine. Lamar Jackson will likely be back, but probably not close to 100%, and maybe a bit rusty.
The Ravens would love to let King Henry rock the Steelers’ world, but I think their defense will show a lot more pride than the Pack’s did last week. The underdog has dominated this series over the past 20 years, and I see no reason why that should change this week. Pittsburgh beat them in Baltimore a month ago, and I think they can make it a sweep, or at the very least, stay within a field goal.
Last Week: 2-1
Season: 24-26-1
