Locks
NBA (1 Unit) NY Knicks @ San Antonio Spurs -1.5 First Quarter (-110; Odds via DraftKings): 7:30 PM CT on ABC
I put 10 toes down and said the Knicks would win this series, Game 1 made that very realistic, and I’m not budging from the prediction. So I’m rooting for New York tonight, while staying away from the full-game numbers because I don’t want my bias conflicting with what I know is a bounce back spot for the Spurs. Where that bounce back should really happen is right out of the gates though, making this number really attractive.
The Spurs have been a dominant first quarter team all season, and especially in the playoffs when they need to respond. Just ask the Wolves, whose theft of Game 1 in that series was unappreciated and saw the Spurs lead by 7 after the first quarter two nights later. The Knicks could be in the same spot here, happy to have stolen a win and relaxing a little bit, while the Spurs are in desperation mode. And the bounce back trend is strong, as teams off a loss in these playoffs are 21-8-1 ATS in the next game’s first quarter. Wednesday’s first quarter lead by the Spurs showed they can still jump on anyone early, and this is a short number for them to do it again.
Bonus Bet (0.75 Unit) Victor Wembanyama Over 39.5 Points+Rebounds (+100; Odds via Fanduel)
This is a game where Wemby needs to step up, and he knows it. I think we see the alien take matters into his own hands and make a statement, as he has in the other games where San Antonio really needed their superstar to be the hero. While he’s only averaging 34.2 on this prop in the playoffs, games where the Spurs are up against it have been different and that’s the case tonight. The Knicks did well against him and have all season, but he had 38 on this prop Wednesday night despite horrible shooting, so I’ll count on the improvement in a desperation situation.
Extra Bonus Bet (0.5 Unit) Landry Shamet Over 7.5 Points (-120; Odds via Fanduel)
Shamet feels like a player whose points prop you can ride all series long, even as the number gets adjusted upwards. He’s going to get a lot of minutes in my opinion as Miles McBride showed that this series is not going to be a good matchup for him, making Shamet the top guard option off the bench. It helps that he’s on an absolutely insane three-point shooting run, going 58.5% in the playoffs and 70% since the East semis started. So with that level of production and those minutes, it’s also worth another quarter unit on the first escalator of 10+ points at +155 tonight.
MLB (0.5 Unit) Parker Messick Over 6.5 Strikeouts (+115; Odds via Fanduel): 7:15 PM CT on Apple TV
If books are going to dangle plus money here, I’m going to have to bite. Messick is the best thing that’s happened to the Guardians rotation this season, even though he isn’t a pitcher that racks up the strikeouts. He’s averaging 9.6 K’s per nine innings which is pretty solid, it’s just been a problem of getting enough innings which is why he’s only 4-8 over this total on the season.
This could be a good spot for him to get those extra innings though, as Globe Life Park is where runs go to die so he should keep himself out of trouble tonight. And he’s facing a Rangers team that has all kinds of problems against lefties like Messick, ranking dead last in runs scored and bottom-3 in just about every other metric. Importantly, they’re also striking out at the second-highest rate against southpaws, so this becomes a worthwhile play as long as Messick can get that lengthier start here.
MLB (0.75 Unit) LA Angels @ LA Dodgers -1.5 (+105; Odds via Caesars): 9:10 PM CT on MLB.TV
Dodgers run line, at home, might be the squarest bet you can make in baseball, but I don’t care tonight. The Dodgers have it out for their crosstown rival after the Angels swept them in last season’s Battle of Los Angeles. The blue team has already started exacting their revenge on the red team, sweeping the first half of the season series at Angels Stadium by margins of 9, 13, and 6 runs.
The Dodgers jumped all over the weak starting pitching for the Angels in that series, which continues tonight. Reid Detmers gets the start, and he faced a string of fairly weak lineups in May but still compiled a 4.98 ERA, plus he’s backed up by arguably the worst bullpen in baseball. The Dodgers might not need much though if Roki Sasaki continues to improve, as he’s had three impressive starts in a row, including against these Angels. With the Dodgers also off a loss here, where they have a plus-1.9 average margin this season, I think they continue to crush the bad team from the other side of town.
Degenerates
No degenerates today.
Past 7 days Tiny Tracker: 16-14 (-1.46 Units) – Recommend: Tail With Extreme Caution
Tiny Nick has been writing betting picks for Zone Coverage since 2020. Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are what he’s most confident in, while Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.
