Locks
NBA Summer League (0.5 Unit) Minnesota Timberwolves -5 vs Denver Nuggets (-110; Odds via Caesars): 6:30 PM CT on Prime Video
I think the Wolves enjoy putting up strong performances at Summer League. Their comfortable victory in the opener against New Orleans showed that they take their time in Vegas seriously, and I think they can grab another easy win here. They’re catching the rival Nuggets in an advantageous spot after Denver had to play last night, and didn’t look particularly good in their loss to the Rockets. There’s really just one option for the Nuggets, Bryce Hopkins, and he has basically no shooting support around him. A well-balanced Wolves team, led by the showcasing of Joan Beringer and scoring ability of Zyon Pullin, should take this one as the big line move would suggest.
NBA Summer League (0.5 Unit) NY Knicks/San Antonio Spurs Under 174.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 5:00 PM CT on ESPN
This matchup, on ESPN, is no accident I’m sure. But I think it’ll be more of a snoozer, as neither of these NBA Finals participants has much going for their Summer League teams. The Knicks are particularly pathetic, with a roster full of names that you have to do a deep dive on Google to find anything out about. That’s a good explanation for why they fell flat on their faces last night against the Nets, managing just 65 points on 28% shooting from the floor. Yes, you read that shooting percentage right, and against a Spurs team that only managed 66 themselves in their opening game, we might be in for a boring one here.
NBA Summer League (0.75 Unit) LA Lakers/Dallas Mavericks Over 179.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 9:00 PM CT on ESPN
This Lakers team looks pretty good, especially on the offensive end where there seemed to be no answer for Adou Thiero last night. LA also went 11-deep for significant minutes, and got good contributions from all over the floor, dropping 96 points despite horrible 3-point shooting. They did allow a weak Thunder roster to score 84 though, the most they’ve managed by far in 4 games this summer, so I have plenty of concerns about the LA defense.
They might be in trouble against a Mavericks team that definitely can score, and Morez Johnson looks like he’ll be a monster in this tournament. Dallas also shot it poorly from deep in their opener but still put up 90, something that seems common with teams playing their first game of the summer. The Mavs had no answer defensively for a deep Warriors team, and I think they’ll continue to struggle against a similar roster here, sending this one over the total.
WNBA (0.75 Unit) A’Ja Wilson Over 24.5 Points (-120; Odds via Fanduel): 5:00 PM CT on Peacock
Welcome back A’ja Wilson. She returned with a bang from a 3-game absence, dropping 32 points on Portland for the second time this season. I know, Portland has the worst defense in the league, but that made it three straight games with 30-plus for A’ja that straddled her injury absence. She also has a 33-point game against the Mercury already this season, in a revenge game for their awful opening night loss.
With the Mercury coming back to the scene of the crime in Vegas, I’m expecting the revenge angle to still be prominent here and spark a big game from the Aces star. With 10 games of clearing this total already on the season, the best player in the league who’s on a hot streak and looking to make up for lost time should do it again.
Degenerates
No degenerates today.
Past 7 days Tiny Tracker: 10-10 (-0.91 Units) – Recommend: Tail With Extreme Caution
Tiny Nick has been writing betting picks for Zone Coverage since 2020. Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are what he’s most confident in, while Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.
