Despite finishing the 2025 season with a winning record, the Minnesota Vikings are – for about the 60th time in franchise history – entering the year as a dark horse. A recent projection from ESPN Analytics gave the Vikings a near-zero chance at winning the division, and the worst overall odds out of the four teams.
Here’s how it shook out:
Minnesota’s year-to-year record yo-yos up and down constantly, and they’ve only won the division once since 2017. The roster is typically not in the elite echelons of talent, and squeezing out good quarterback play has proven to be a persistent challenge, to say the least. And yet, this year feels very different, far from a 10% chance of taking the crown in the North.
The Vikings earned a 9-8 record in 2025 despite enduring some of the worst quarterback play the franchise has seen in years. With Kyler Murray, or perhaps a substantially improved J.J. McCarthy at the helm this season, it seems clear Minnesota is destined for bigger and better things. Clearly the media and even the computers don’t see it that way, though. So, what’s missing?
Murray has posted a winning record only once in his seven-year career, although it happened with the dismal Arizona Cardinals. Quarterback wins are a hotly debated statistic. Still, it’s no secret that Murray hasn’t lived up to his No. 1-overall pick expectations, and the Cardinals are happily paying him $30 million just to be literally anywhere but Glendale this season.
Still, Murray has had to battle through various injuries and incompetent coaches throughout his career, and he’s unquestionably in the best spot he’s ever been in. Minnesota boasts the top receiving trio in the NFL, and one of the best offensive head coaches to boot. Scheme fit and all that racket aside, if Murray can stay healthy, it’s hard to imagine dropping the fast, talented, and fifth-most accurate passer in NFL history in with Justin Jefferson won’t be anything but successful.
Outside of quarterback, Minnesota’s roster is generally viewed as good, not great. There will be no arguments here. The defense lacks star power; their group photo should be the first image that pops up if you Google the phrase “better than the sum of its parts.” On offense, receiver is significantly better than the rest of the skill positions.
Brian Flores is the X-factor here, and frankly is one of the reasons that Minnesota has a shot at the division at all. Even on a defense where the best player is a 31-year-old dad named Gink, Flores continues to churn out top-10 units. The 2025 group was third in DVOA in the NFL even in an arguably down season. This year should be no different, even after they traded Jonathan Greenard. It’s stunning how Flores continues to be overlooked as someone who changes the game and influences an entire season.
On the offensive side, the line should see some positive injury regression. After seeing four of the five starters miss time due to injury in 2025, the Vikings are bound for some better luck this time around. While the backfield of Aaron Jones and Jordan Mason isn’t going to generate much excitement, the Vikings only need them to be good enough. How many New England Patriots or Kansas City Chiefs teams had elite run games?
Minnesota also added some nice pieces in Murray, Jauan Jennings, and James Pierre this spring. Still, nobody is arguing they had the greatest offseason of all time. However, compared to the Green Bay Packers or the Detroit Lions, the Vikings emerged as the obvious winners.
The Packers didn’t have a draft pick until No. 52 overall, lost six starters, signed our friend Javon Hargrave, and doled out insane money to the perennially hurt Christian Watson. Meanwhile, Detroit’s version of a splash signing was running back Isiah Pacheco after dealing away David Montgomery. Both teams were already working with a relatively high floor, but to say either team improved in the slightest is quite laughable. And yet, they get the first laugh of July with much higher odds to win the division.
The fast-rising Chicago Bears likely pose the biggest threat to the Vikings. Still, even then, it’s not unfathomable to think Minnesota could sweep them.
Winning the NFC North will be a tall task, but Minnesota’s chances have to be higher than 10%. With some stability at quarterback, a solid roster, elite coaching staff, and regressing opponents, there’s a world where Minnesota runs away with this thing.
Maybe Murray doesn’t work out, the league finally figures out Flores, or Jefferson breaks his arm in Week 1, derailing the entire season. Any or all of that could happen. However, until it does, it’s tough to see how this team could face near-impossible odds of winning the division.
