Minnesota Vikings quarterback J.J. McCarthy is many things. Misunderstood? At times, but maybe Nine will get retired this year. A starter in 2026? According to the national media, there’s a non-zero chance. One thing that nobody can question, however, is McCarthy’s determination to get better. But how far will that take him?
Earlier in the week, NFL Network’s Tom Pelissero reported that the Vikings will host a truly open quarterback competition this summer between McCarthy and newcomer Kyler Murray, a stark contrast to public opinion.
“Both these guys are going to go into this believing they’re gonna win this job,” said Pelissero. “I don’t know, frankly, how friendly that quarterback room is going to be. It’s going to be a very competitive quarterback room.”
Despite going 6-4 as a starter last year, McCarthy was wildly inconsistent and struggled to move the chains in an NFL offense, despite his occasional splash plays. With a roster built to compete now, the Vikings did the sensible thing and scooped up Murray for pennies, all while hoping McCarthy continues to develop.
Firstly, McCarthy will undoubtedly be better this summer, but he can’t just be better than he was in 2025. He has to be better than former No. 1-overall pick Kyler Murray, and that’s a huge ask.
2020 was Murray’s best season as a pro, when he threw for nearly 4,000 yards, rushed for another 800, and had 37 total touchdowns. That feels like a lifetime ago, but most fans expect his departure from the life-sucking Arizona Cardinals will reignite that spark. So, although Murray hasn’t exactly been a world-beater the past few years, McCarthy will still face an uphill battle to outperform him.
The biggest leap McCarthy needs to take is in his throwing mechanics and his ability to hit tight windows while maintaining some touch. He’s clearly got the arm talent, but there’s only so many more fastballs six feet over Justin Jefferson’s head we can stomach. While he may have improved his layering and touch this year, McCarthy is still up against the fifth-most accurate passer in NFL history. Murray may not have the same arm strength as McCarthy, but his ability to deliver the ball is unquestionably superior at this point in time.
While there is a lot for McCarthy to work on in the offseason, he is a good playmaker. The Vikings won every game in which McCarthy rushed for a touchdown, and almost a quarter of his rushes or scrambles last year went for at least 10 yards. It’d be a stretch to say he’s a dual-threat quarterback, but he certainly knows how to use his legs like the Aaron Rodgers or the Caleb Williams of the world. Or, you know, Kyler Murray.
Murray’s skills as a scrambler are widely known to be some of the best in the NFL. While no one would expect McCarthy to eclipse Murray in that aspect, it’s tough knowing one of your best traits now pales in comparison to the new guy. Murray boasts a career six-yard per rush average, and legitimately scares defenses with his ability to elude the pass-rush time and time again. McCarthy just doesn’t change the game to the extent Murray can and will.
It’s also no secret that McCarthy has struggled to stay healthy just two years into his NFL career. After missing all of his rookie year with a knee injury, he followed it up in Year 2 with a high ankle sprain, a concussion, and a hand fracture that caused him to miss seven games in 2025. So, although Murray has had similar issues staying on the field, McCarthy doesn’t exactly come in as an ironman like Kirk Cousins. Injuries are often unpredictable, though, and despite some concerns for both, it won’t be the reason one quarterback earns the job or doesn’t.
The biggest advantages McCarthy has probably won’t hold much water in 2026. After two years in O’Connell’s system, his knowledge of the playbook should be solid. That is, of course, if O’Connell isn’t overhauling the playbook to accommodate Murray’s skill set. While at a high level, things will largely stay the same, McCarthy may not have a total advantage over Murray, who has surely been playing as the Vikings on Madden for months now.
McCarthy’s other advantage is that he’s a former top-10 pick from just a few years ago, and Minnesota still really wants this thing to work out. They could have dumped him a la Josh Rosen or Trey Lance. Instead, they opted to give him another chance in 2026. So if the Vikings have some sunk-cost fallacy in McCarthy, he may be able to take advantage of it.
Ultimately, McCarthy will improve this year. He’s going to show some nice plays in preseason that make you think, Is J.J. McCarthy actually the guy now? If this battle were with Carson Wentz or even Geno Smith, it’s easy to believe that McCarthy has a strong chance at QB1 in 2026. But where McCarthy falls short, Murray excels, and where he has strengths, Murray’s are stronger. It’s just too hard to see how McCarthy rockets past Murray despite some expected development.
